台灣上市公司資產成長對次年度盈餘之影響

Abstract

財務會計主要之功能，在於資訊之揭露與表達。在過去與盈餘資訊相關之研究指出，本期盈餘中應計部分的盈餘持續性要比現金流量部分來的低，因此，在預測未來盈餘這方面，現金流量之預測效果會比應計來的好。但是，應計是構成盈餘之一部分，但也是資產成長之一部分，而資產之成長也會影響到未來盈餘之變化。因此，本研究主要在探討應計對次年度盈餘之影響以及其影響是否歸屬於資產成長之因素。 本論文以民國95年3月1日在台灣證券交易所掛牌上市屬一般產業之公司為樣本，並以Fairfield, Whisenant and Yohn(2003)之迴歸模型為基礎，分析樣本公司自民國78年12月31日至民國93年12月31日這15年間淨營業資產成長與次年度資產報酬率之間的關係。 本論文實證結果顯示淨營業資產成長對次年度資產報酬率雖有負相關存在，但其相關程度相當的不顯著。再把淨營業資產成長分成應計與長期淨營業資產這兩部分，其中應計部分與次年度盈餘呈現負相關，而長期淨營業資產與次年度盈餘呈現正相關，但同樣都不顯著。另外研究結果也發現，電子業之顯著程度遠低於整體一般產業，在單獨排除電子業後，非電子業之顯著程度明顯比原先一般產業來的高。

The primary function of financial accounting is to disclose and present the information. About the information of earnings, prior research indicates that the accrual component of earnings is less persistent than the cash flow component; therefore, for predicting future earnings, the cash flow component is better than accrual component. However, accruals are a component of earnings, as well as a component of asset growth, which also affects future earnings. Therefore, this paper investigates the effect of accruals for one-year-ahead earnings and whether the effect results from the growth in assets. This empirical research uses data of general industry firms listed on Taiwan Stock Exchange on March 1, 2006 as sample, analyzing the relationship between growth in net operating assets and one-year-ahead ROA over the sample period 1990-2004, based on the regression developed by Fairfield, Whisenant and Yohn(2003). The empirical results indicate that although growth in net operating assets has negative relationship with one-year-ahead ROA, the negative relationship is very weak. After dividing growth in net operating assets into accruals and growth in long-term net operating assets, the accruals has negative relationship with one-year-ahead ROA, and the growth in long-term net operating assets has positive relationship with one-year-ahead ROA. But both of the relationships are very weak. Our research also finds that the relationship in electronic industry is significantly lower than general industry. After excluding electronic industry, the relationship in non-electronic industry is obviously more significant than that of original general industry.