台灣廢紙回收政策之系統動態模擬分析

Abstract

本論文旨在分析政策措施對廢紙回收之影響，進而選擇適當之政策，以促進廢紙再利用。首先，本文以系統動態學程式STELLA來模擬台灣廢紙回收系統並且建構模擬模型。然後，應用此模型分別評估包括補貼國內廢紙、對原生紙漿及進口廢紙課稅以及綜合補貼及課稅等不同政策措施的影響。 模擬結果顯示，綜合政策措施增加國內廢紙回收量均較補貼或課稅之單一政策措施為多。在單一政策措施中，對原生紙漿課稅所增加之廢紙回收量最多，而補貼有較對進口廢紙課稅更高之效果。此外，綜合政策能維持財政收支平衡。補貼和對進口廢紙課稅之綜合措施可使廢紙回收量增加最多，較之政府未介入時多達128.3萬公噸，且國內廢紙回收率在2005年到2010年間由68.14%提高至81.3%。

The purpose of this thesis was to analyze the impacts of policy measures of wastepaper recycling, then to choose an appropriate measure in terms of increase in wastepaper reuse. First of all, a system dynamics program, STELLA, was used to simulate the wastepaper recycling system in Taiwan and to set up a simulation model. The model was then applied to evaluate the effects separately of different measures including subsidy to domestic wastepaper, taxes on virgin pulp and imported wastepaper, and combined measures of subsidy and tax. The result of simulation showed that combined measures increased more amount of wastepaper reuse than subsidy or tax measure only. Among simple measures, tax on virgin pulp had the most increase in wastepaper reuse and subsidy had higher level than tax on imported wastepaper. Also, combined measures could keep a balance of fiscal income. The combined measure of subsidy and with tax on imported wastepaper could increase most significantly the reuse of wastepaper by 1.28 million tons, compared to without government intervention, and could raise domestic wastepaper recovery rate by 81.3% from 68.14% between 2005 and 2010.