如何應用整合型談判架構解決衝突

Abstract

本研究整理了Howard Raiffa之談判分析以及Michael Watkins之突破國際談判，並整理出一套整合型談判架構，希望利用此整合型談判架構說明『如何解決衝突』。此整合型談判架構中包括了以下幾個重要的分支架構： （1）基本談判架構（2）阻礙談判的障礙（3）破除障礙的方法（4）達成協議的技巧，而如何利用整合型談判架構解決衝突此問題可分成四個部份來探討，包括了： 1. 如何應用基本談判架構分析衝突的現況 2. 如何利用造成僵局的障礙來辨認阻礙談判的原因 3. 如何利用重回談判桌的方法來破除談判的障礙 4. 如何利用建立協議的契機在談判桌上達成協議 緊接著研究者利用數個國外之案例，作為如何應用整合型談判架構以回答上述四項問題之說明，包括了： 1. 第一次朝核危機 2. 巴以衝突 3. 波士尼亞內戰 4. 古巴飛彈危機 5. 第一次波灣戰爭 6. 北愛爾蘭問題 7. Bellicoso內戰 其中本研究利用第一次朝核危機說明，基本談判架構以及衝突障礙的分析。利用巴以衝突再次強調基本談判架構以及障礙分析，但是重點在於如何透過平行的談判來破除障礙。接著透過波士尼亞內戰說明第三者介入如何排除談判的障礙。此外透過古巴飛彈危機說明強制性事件破除談判障礙的邏輯。接著透過第一次波灣戰爭說明，如何建立贏家聯盟。然後透過北愛爾蘭問題說明坐上談判桌之後，若是沒有透過某些建立契機的技巧，衝突雙方將難以達成協議。 最後利用Bellicoso此模擬案例作整合性的說明應用，涵蓋了所有整合型談判架構的每一個部份，並回答研究開始提及之四個問題。

This is thesis organize the Negotiation Analysis, writed by Howard Riffa, and the Breakthrough International Negotation, writed by Michael Watkins, and propose an Integrated Negotiation Framwork. Hope to use the framework to solve the conflict. This Integrted Negotiation Framework comprise several branch frameworks, including（1）Basic Negotiation Framework（2）Barriers to the Agreement（3）Means to Break the Barriers（4）Technics to Agreement The problem『How to Use the Integrated Negotiation Framework Solving the Conflict』can be broken down into 4 parts： 1. How to analyze the situation now using the Basic Negotiation Framework？ 2. How to define the reasons which forms the braaiers to negotiation with the Barries to the Agreement？ 3. How to break the barriers with the Means to Break the Barriers？ 4. How to make an agreement with the Technics to Agreement？ Then, the researcher uses many cases from foreign countrys to answer the question 『How to Use the Integrated Negotiation Framework Solving the Conflict』, including 1. The First Peninsula Nuclear Crisis 2. The Conflict between Palestine and Israel 3. The Civill War in Bosnia 4. The Cuba missile Crisis 5. The First Gulf War 6. The Conflict in Northern Ireland 7. The Civil War in Bellicoso This thesis use the First Peninsula Nuclear Crisis to argufy that the application of the Basic Negotiation Framework and the Barriers to the Agreement, and use the Conflict between Palestine and Israel to restate the application of the Basic Negotiation Framework and the Barriers to the Agreement and stress how to use the parallel negotiation the break the barriers. Then, it use the Civil War in Bosnia to argufy the application of the intervenor and the Cuba Missile Crisis for the logic of the coercive event. Moreover, it use the Gulf War to argufy how to form an winning coalition and the Conflict in Northern Ireland to proof thr application of Building the Momentun. Finally, it uses the Civil War in Ballicos to form an integrated application of the Integrated Negotiation Framework and answer the four questions we ask in the beginning of the abstract.