以賽局觀點分析台灣有線電視產業之分區競爭 兼論邁向全面數位化播送時點之研究

Abstract

台灣的有線電視產業直到1993年立法院通過有線電視法，才開始邁向競爭型管制模式，以一區不超過五家，通過審驗後方得經營，並將全國劃分成51區，隨著財團介入各區加速合併，目前由五家MSO(Multiple System Operators)以及19家獨立業者分區經營，大都為獨占模式，少部份為兩家聯合寡占競爭，2006年外資進入台灣有線電視，併購三家MSO擁有全台68%客戶，以一個投資為期五年的短期基金，是否能在產業劇烈變動中掌握商機，也觸發了作者的研究動機。 有線電視業者過去數年，擁有企業壟斷的經營利基，雖然收費受政府定價管制，但仍可透過強大購買力，向供應商要求依照政府定價計算收入後的頻道買價，類比訊號播送會有盜接缺點，卻不願意作資本投資，讓訊號全面數位化升級，原因不外：(1)市場競爭力道不夠 (2)政府缺乏良善數位政策，協助業者提升。本文將以賽局觀點配合價值鏈的分析，作競爭報酬趨勢分析，從分區面也從整體產業面推估，電信自由化後衍生的匯流競爭，篩選未來五年有效競爭對手，針對(1)同業競爭(2)無線數位電視業者的競爭(3)中華電信MOD(Multimedia On Demand)等參賽者，納入賽局及價值網分析，探討有線電視全面數位化的市場誘因及時機點。 研究結論認為有線電視業者的彼此競爭，並不會帶來促進產業升級的效果，無線電視數位化，雖然有威脅，但是規劃頻寬仍然不足，既存類比節目數量已足夠作有效競爭，唯有MOD挾著中華電信巨大資源，IP電視技術將會改變產業競爭架構，迫使有線電視必須在短時間升級，才能在後續競爭中續保領先。

The pass of Cable Television Act in 1993 opens a new competition era in this industry. The regulator divided Taiwan into 51 business districts and less 5 licenses issued per franchise. There are 5 MSOs and 19 independent operators share the entire market with monopoly or duopoly mode. From 2006 three international private investment funds have acquired 3 MSO own more than 68% market share. The motivation of this research is to analyze how a 5 years fund player to success in the convergence era in Taiwan. The CATV operators receive the subscription price cap from the authority per year. After that they deal the price to the programs providers with profit since they are monopoly in franchise. They won’t upgrade the network to prevent the serious analog signal pirate problem because of easy profit. This thesis adopts Game Theory and co-optional value-net to explain the competition between CATV wireless TV operators and MOD from ChuangHwa telecom in the next five years. The conclusions are (1) the competition between CATV operators does not help to upgrade. (2) The new wireless digital operators are not strong competitors to the analog CATV operators because of limited program capability. (3) The competition from MOD brings new business landscape will effectively change the video industry. CATV operators are likely to try to quickly upgrade to survive.