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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 唐代彪(De-Piao Tang) | |
| dc.contributor.author | Zhen-Ting Kang | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 康禎庭 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-13T02:29:53Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2012-02-02 | |
| dc.date.copyright | 2007-02-02 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2007 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2007-01-25 | |
| dc.identifier.citation | (一)中文部分
Cohen, Joele E.，王道遠翻譯，〈擁擠的地球〉，《科學人》雜誌。第44期，2005年十月號，頁三八~四五。 Malthus, Thomas R.著，周憲文譯(1966)，《人口論-下冊》。台灣銀行經濟研究室，頁三四二至三四七。 Musser, George，宋宜真翻譯，〈人類，抉擇的時刻〉，《科學人》雜誌。第44期，2005年十月號，頁三四~三七。 Sachs, Jeffrey D.，齊若蘭翻譯，〈終結貧窮〉，《科學人》雜誌。第44期，2005年十月號，頁四九。 謝登隆,徐繼達(2001)，《總體經濟理論與政策》，智勝文化事業有限公司，第八版，頁二三六至三三一。 楊奕農(2005)，《時間序列分析經濟與財務上之應用》，雙葉書廊有限公司，初版。 (二) 西(英)文部分 Barro, Robert J. (1996), “Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-country Empirical Study,” NBER Working Paper, no. 5698. Bloom, David E. and Freeman, Richard B. (1986), “The Effects of Rapid Population Growth on Labor Supply and Employment in Developing Countries,” Population and Development Review, v. 12, iss. 3, pp. 381-414 __________________________________ (1988), “Economic Development and the Timing and Components of Population Growth,” Journal of Policy ModelingH, April 1988, v. 10, iss. 1, pp. 57-81 Brander, James A. and Dowrick, Steve (1994), “The Role of Fertility and Population in Economic Growth: Empirical Results from Aggregate Cross-National Data,” Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 7(1), pp. 1-25 Caldwell, John C. (2004), “Demographic Theory: A Long View, “Population and Development Review, 30(2), pp.297-316 Coale, A. and Hoover, E. (1958), “Population Growth and Economic Development in Low-income Countries: a Case Study of India’s prospects,” Princeton University Press, Princeton. Frank, Furedi (1997), Population and Development: A Critical Introduction, Palgrave Macmillan, Cambridge, England Galor, Oded and David, N.Weil (1999), “From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth,” American Economic Review, Vol.89(2), pp. 150-154. Hazledine, T. and Moreland, R. S. (1977), “Population and Economic Growth: a world cross-section study,” Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.59, iss.3, pp. 253-263 Hendrik Van den Berg (2001), Economic Growth and Development, McGraw-Hill Irwin Jones, Charles I. (1999,May 26), “Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth over the Very Long Run,” NBER working paper, no.7375, National Bureau of Economic Research Inc. Kelley, Allen C. (1988), “Economic Consequences of Population Change in the Third World,” HJournal of Economic LiteratureH, Vol. 26, iss. 4, pp. 1685-1728 _____________ (2001), “Population and Economic Development,” International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences Elsevier Science, UK. Kelley, Allen C. and Schmidt, R. M. (1994), “Population and Income Change: Recent Evidence,” World Bank Discussion Papers 249, The World Bank, Washington, DC. __________________________ (1995), “Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change,” Demography, Vol. 32, pp. 543-555 Kremer, Michael (1993), “Population Growth and Technology Change: One Million B.C. to 1990,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 108(3), pp.681-716 Kuznet, Simon (1955), “Toward a theory of economic growth,” Robert Lekachman, National Policy for Economic Welfare at Home and Abroad, Garden City, NY: Doubleday ____________ (1973), Population, Capital and Growth: Selected essays, Norton, NY. Maddison, Angus (2001), The World Economy : a Millennial Perspective, Development Centre of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris McNicoll, Geoffrey (1984), “Consequences of Rapid Population Growth: An Overview and Assessment,” Population and Development Review, Vol. 10, iss. 2, pp. 177-240 Meier, G. M.(1953), “The problem of limited economic development,” reprinted in Agarwala and Singh, The Economics of Underdevelopment, pp.57 Mynt (1954), “The Interpretation of Economic Backwardness,” reprinted in Agarwala and Singh, The Economics of Underdevelopment, pp.107-108 Prithett, Lant (1997), “Divergence, Big Time,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 11(3), pp. 3-17 Simon, Julian L. (1996), The Ultimate Resource 2, Princeton University Press. Srinivasan T. N. (1988), “Population Growth and Economic Development,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 10(1), pp.7-28 Thornton, John H. (2001), “Population Growth and Economic Growth: Long-Run Evidence from Latin America,” Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 68, iss. 2, pp. 464-468 Todaro, Michael P. (1989), “Economic development in the Third World,” Longman, New York United Nations (1986), “The Effects of Rapid Population Trends and policies,” monitoring report, New York World Bank (1984), “World Development Report,” Oxford University Press, New York. （三）電子網頁部分 Downs, Robert B.著，H彭歌H譯(1998)，〈自由企業的守護神 國富論〉，《改變歷史的書》，台北：聯經 [Online: Access Date 16th Jan, 2007] http://www.folkdoc.idv.tw/classic/p02/ba/ba04/03.htm 張健鋒、蕭博仁(2003)，〈環境危機的肇因─人口或科技〉[Online: Access Date 16th Jan, 2007] http://www.nctu.edu.tw/~shue2003/0513-2t.htm The World Bank http://www.worldbank.org/ United Nations http://www.un.org/ | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/31102 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 本篇論文研究目的，是試圖透過百年以上的各國人口數與每人實質所得數據，探究在極長期下，此兩變數是否存在長期均衡關係，若有，則兩變數的因果關係為何。並進一步為各個國家劃分出低、中、高所得水準時期，比較各國在經歷不同所得時期時，每人實質所得成長率對人口成長率的解釋力是否一致。資料取自Angus Maddison(2003), Development Centre Studies The World Economy: Historical Statistics, OECD
文章中分別以Engle-Granger two-step test和Johansen Cointegration test檢驗各國變數間是否具有共整合關係、以Granger Causality test檢測變數間的因果關係，最後是利用設置虛擬變數項來比較不同所得時期，兩變數間的解釋力是否會出現變化。 實證結果發現，雖然此篇文章利用極長期的數據做探究，但和前人研究(中、短期數據)的結論相仿，多數國家的兩變數間不具有長期均衡關係、且唯少數國家的兩變數間具有互相解釋的能力，分別是法國與義大利，特別的是此兩國所呈現的結論是人口成長會領先(帶動)每人實質所得成長。 另一部份的實證研究發現，文章中所選取的二十八個國家中的數據都一致顯示:所得成長率對人口成長率的解釋力在中所得時期、高所得時期間顯著不同。也就是說，每人實質實際所得數額的高低確實會左右每人實質所得成長與人口成長的關係。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-13T02:29:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-96-R93341037-1.pdf: 2057535 bytes, checksum: 975505951dc96b7000fb6abeb2d2ade7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論........................................................1
第一節 研究動機...............................................1 第二節 研究目的...............................................8 第三節 研究限制...............................................9 第二章 文獻回顧...........................................10 第一節 學說理論..............................................10 第二節 文獻探討..............................................14 第三章 研究方法...........................................19 第一節 探究方向與資料取得...................................19 第二節 實做流程.............................................20 第三節 假說建立.............................................22 第四節 分析方式.............................................23 第四章 實證結果分析.......................................29 第一節 單根檢定實證結果.....................................29 第二節 Granger Causality檢定實證結果........................35 第三節 Johansen 共整合檢定實證結果..........................42 第四節 納入虛擬變數的迴歸式實證結果.........................44 第五章 結論與建議.........................................51 第一節 研究結論.............................................51 第二節 研究限制與後續建議...................................53 參考文獻 .................................................54 附錄......................................................59 附錄1 各國人口數與每人實質年所得數趨勢圖...................60 附錄2 各國人口成長率與每人實質年所得成長率趨勢圖...........69 | |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
| dc.subject | 人口成長 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 虛擬變數 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 共整合關係檢定 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 因果關係檢定 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 每人實質所得成長 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | GDP Per Capita Growth | en |
| dc.subject | Population Growth | en |
| dc.subject | Dummy Variables | en |
| dc.subject | Johansen Cointegration Test | en |
| dc.subject | Granger Causality Test | en |
| dc.title | 人口成長與經濟成長之百年關係 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | The Relation between Population Growth and Economic Growth in Recent Centuries | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 95-1 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 王凱立(Kai-Li Wang),郭建中(Jiann-Jong Guo) | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 因果關係檢定,共整合關係檢定,虛擬變數,人口成長,每人實質所得成長, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | Granger Causality Test,Johansen Cointegration Test,Dummy Variables,Population Growth,GDP Per Capita Growth, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 76 | |
| dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2007-01-26 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 社會科學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 國家發展研究所 | zh_TW |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 國家發展研究所 | |
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| ntu-96-1.pdf 未授權公開取用 | 2.01 MB | Adobe PDF |
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