參考點依賴偏好對風險選擇的影響

Abstract

人的選擇行為往往受到他作決定當下的參考點所影響,然而,對於這個參考究竟如何形成,始終沒有定見。以往人們多認為參考點是一個固定不動的狀態,不過近來有學者認為,允許參考點是一個隨機、非固定的信念,能夠解釋更多觀察到的行為。這裡我們使用一種圖形化介面的彩券來探討,對於同樣的選擇,當受試者位於不同的參考點上,其反應是否也會跟著產生變化。我們希望透過視覺的簡化,讓受試者可以更專注於價值評估上,進而得到更多個人化的資料以及更精確的結論。

Reference point plays a key role in subjects' decision-making while people make their choices. The theories of reference point formation, however, still need to be verified. Here we employ lottery tickets with Graphic User Interface to explore the choice behavior under uncertainty. We are curious about whether people would alter their behavior while the reference point was changed, for example, while they were asked to decided the equivalent lottery compared with a sure pay off or to decided the certainty equivalent of a lottery. With the help of Graphic User Interface, we hope to reduce the complexity of lottery tickets and make subjects concentrate their attention on the evaluation process. Therefore, we could collect more individual data from heterogeneous subjects and come to a definite conclusion about reference point.