中國入世對俄中兩國貿易的影響

Abstract

本研究將分析中國入世後對俄羅斯的影響。首先，我們在中國的入世之前和之後分析俄中雙邊的貿易結構的模式。這近年來，俄羅斯與中國增強了雙邊貿易。因為中國本身具有廣大的貿易市場，使得它入世後能夠有不錯的表現。所以提供俄羅斯一個將貨品銷往中國的機會。中國對於原物料日益增加的大宗需求，似乎使得俄羅斯對中國的角色相形重要。但是俄羅斯透過出口結構的多樣化可以獲得更多的商業利益。 其次，本研究家分析中國入世前後在第三市場對俄羅斯貿易的影響。在這裡，我們特別去研究美國和德國的市場。根據我們的若干經濟指數的結果 (Regional Revealed Comparative Advantage, the Lawrence Index and the Index of Trade Competition），我們可以斷定中國入世後沒有對俄羅斯造成它在第三市場貿易的影響。此外，在對外出口中由於雙方組織的差異性，一般而言，俄羅斯在出口貿易方面，並未面臨到中國在第三國的強大競爭壓力。 為了將這些潛在的收益發揮到最大，俄羅斯必須在財務制度、貿易政策的方面要繼續改進。

This paper investigates the implications of China’s accession to the World Trade Organization for Russia. First of all, we analyze the patterns of Russian-Chinese bilateral trade structure before and after China’s WTO entry. Russia and China has intensified their mutual trade in the recent years. Chinese performance after accession in the WTO represents a great opportunity for Russia, because of its potential export markets. China’s growing demand for the raw materials seem to be favorable for Russia, but Russia can gain more through the diversification of export structure. Secondly, this study analyzes the implications of China’s WTO accession on the Russian trade in the third market. Here we particularly study the markets of the USA and Germany. According to our results of several economic indices (Regional Revealed Comparative Advantage, the Lawrence Index and the Index of Trade Competition), we can conclude that China’s WTO entry has not influenced on Russian trade in the third market. Moreover, due to dissimilarity in the export structures, Russia’s exports in general do not face important competition from China’s in third countries. In order to maximize these potential gains, Russia must continue to advance in macro stability, supervision and regulation of their financial systems, openness to the world economy and building strong institutions.