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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 任立中(Li-Chung Jen) | |
| dc.contributor.author | Siang-Hao Zeng | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 曾祥豪 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-13T02:01:54Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2007-07-18 | |
| dc.date.copyright | 2007-07-18 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2007 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2007-07-06 | |
| dc.identifier.citation | 參考文獻
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Davis, Nihan and Hamed(1990), ” Adaptive Forecasting of Freeway Way Traffic Congestion,” Transportation Research Record, 1287, pp.29-33. 5. Dean W. Wichern and Richard H. Jonest(1977), “Assessing The Impact of Market Disturbances Using Intervention Analysis,” Management Science, Vol. 24, No,3 November. 6. Dean, J.(1950), “Pricing Policies for New Products,” Harvard Business Review, 28(6), pp.45-53. 7. Daniel J. Flint, Robert B. Woodruff, Sarah Fisher Gardial(1997), “Customer Value Change in Industrial Marketing Relationships,” Industrial Marketing Management 26, 163-175. 8. Dwyer, F.R., “Customer Lifetime Valuation to support Marketing Decision Making,” Journal of direct Marketing, 3 (Autumn), 8-15 ,1989. 9. Easingwood C. J.(1988), “Product Lifecycle Patterns for New Industrial Product,” R&D Management, Jan, 18. 10. Gale, Bradley T. (1994). Managing Customer Value: Creating Quality and Service that Customer can See. New York: The Free Press. 11. Granger C.W.J. and Newbold P.(1973), “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics,” Journal of Econometrics 2, 111-120 12. Hughes, A.M, (1994). Strategic Database Marketing, Chicago, IL: Probus Publishing Company. 13. Kim, Byung-Do, Sung-O Min and Jong-Chil Shin (1999), “Calculating lifetime values of business customers for a telecommunications company,” Journal of Database Marketing, Vol.7, No.3, pp.254-264. 14. Kotler, Philip(1996), Marketing Management: Analysis, Planning, Implementation and Control, 7thed, Prentice Hall, 186-253. 15. Kotler, Philip(1967), Managerial Marketing, Planning, Analysis, and Control. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall. 16. Kotler, Ang, Leong& Tan, (2003). Marketing Management: An Asian Perspective, 3rd edition. Prentice Hall. 17. Levitt, T.(1965), “Exploit The Product Life Cycle,” Harvard Business Review, 43, pp.81-94. 18. Mulhern, F.J.(1999), “Customer profitability Analysis: Measurement, Concentration, and Research Directions,” Journal of Interactive Marketing, 13 (1). 19. Onkvisit, S. and Shaw J.J.(1989), Product Life Cycles And Product Management, Quorum, New York. 20. Porter, M. (1985). Competitive Advantage. New York: The Free Press. 21. Pfeifer, Philip E.(1999), “On the Use of Customer Lifetime Value As A Limit on Acquisition Spending,” Journal of Database Marketing, Vol.7, No.1, pp.81-86. 22. Polli, R.(1968), A test of the classical product life cycle by means of actual sales histories, PH.D dissertation, University of Pennsylvan-ia. 23. Robert P. Leone(1987), “Forecasting the Effect of An Environment Change On Market Performance,” International Journal of Forecasting 3, 463-478, North-Holland. 24. Rink, D.R. and Swan, J.E.(1979), “Product life cycle research：a literature review,” Journal of Business Research, 78(September), pp.219-242. 25. Rogers, E.M.(1962), Diffusion of Innovations, New York: The Free Press. 26. Rossi, Peter E., Rober E. McCulloch, and Greg M. Allenby(1996), “The Value of Purchase History Data in Target Marketing,” Marketing Science 15 (4), 321-340. 27. Ryan, Micharel J., Rayner, Robert & Morrison, Andy (1999). Diagonsing Customer Loyalty Drivers: Partial Least Squares vs. Regression. Marketing Research, Summer, pp.19 - 26. 28. Ronald T. Rust, Katherine N. Lemon, and Valarie A. Zeithmal(2004), “Return on Marketing: Using Customer Equity to Focus Marketing Strategy,” Journal of Marketing, Vol. 68(January), 109-127. 29. Rust, Zeithmal, and Lemon(2000), Driving Customer Equity: How Customer Lifetime Value Is Reshaping Corporate Strategy, New York: The Free Press. 30. Sewell, C. and Brown, P.(1990), Customer for Life: How to Turn That One-Time Buyer into A Lifetime Customer, New York: Doubledat/Currency, 235-238. 31. Sheth, Bruce I. Newman, and Barbara L.Gross (1991), 'Consumption Values and Market Choices: Theory and Applications, CincinnatI,' OH: Southwestern Publishin. 32. Woodruff, Robert B. and Sarah Fisher Gardial (1996), Know Your Customer: New Approaches to Understanding Customer Value and Satisfaction. Cambridge, MA: Blackwell Publishers. 33. Zeithaml, Valarie A. (1988). “Consumer Perceptions of Price, Quality, and Value: A Means-End Model and Synthesis of Evidence.” Journal of marketing, 52(July), 2 - 22. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/30354 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 行銷人員對企業所能產生的最大貢獻，就是想盡辦法提高企業的顧客價值。而所謂顧客價值的提升，從策略的角度觀之有兩個面向：一是從提升顧客願付價格著手，一是降低成本。使用這相同的邏輯思維運用到顧客資料庫之運用上。行銷研究人員透過模型建立以及消費者行為分析，協助企業去做更精準的行銷活動以讓消費者提高其願付價格。此外從過去的消費者消費記錄，也可從中觀察消費者是否有離開或是降低購買意願等的情況，及早阻止顧客離開。造成顧客離開的原因主要可分為二種。一種是顧客正常的流失；另一種原因卻是，顧客因為企業遇到某些異常事件的影響而導致其離開。行銷人員是否能利用其知識，對異常事件進行正確的判斷，對顧客因異常事件離開所造成的顧客價值影響進行正確評估，提報企業擬定應變之計，在未來是愈來愈不可避免的議題。
本研究以國內網路公司為個案，以時間序列介入模型的方式，進行該公司因異常事件對其公司顧客價值所造成之影響效果的研究。從行銷理論的產品生命週期理論以及統計觀點的Chow-Test轉變點檢定的檢視，證明該公司在其所宣稱事件發生日時確有發生異常事件，並對顧客價值產生影響效果。本研究在比較了四個介入模型的模型預測力以及判定係數之後，確定並建立了以ARIMA(2,1,1and5)第一階階段介入函數模型對事件對顧客價值影響進行分析，最終計算出異常事件對於企業之顧客價值所造成的影響效果高達45484290元。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | The most valuable marketing people are who can help their companies improve customer value most. From strategic perspective, to improve customer value can be done in two ways. On the one hand is to improve the price customers will pay; on the other hand is to lower the costs. In addition by constructing model and consumer behavior analysis, marketing people can improve the price customers willing to pay in terms of more precise marketing activities, marketing people can also respond actively to the situation of customer leaving by observing the transaction data of customers.
There are two reasons will result in customers leaving. One is that disappear naturally, and the other is that results from abnormal events deriving from the competitors or environment. Thus, analyze and evaluate these events which will make impact to the customer value of the company, caution the manager for the damage as well as make marketing strategy to respond the impact is an evitable task for marketing people in the future. The case company in this thesis is an on-line company. This research use the Chow-test of breakpoint test of time-series method and product life cycle theory to prove that there was an abnormal event happened in this company. After comparing the coefficient of determination, RMSE and MAPE, this research then find out a ARIMA(2,1,1and5) first-step step-function intervention model which is better to model and analyse the event. Finally, the impact resulted from the event caused customer value loss of N.T. 45484290 dollars to the company. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-13T02:01:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-96-R94724058-1.pdf: 704637 bytes, checksum: 7f05c822ae6fc6cefd82c34ab6cbdf61 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 論文摘要 I
Abstract II 目錄 III 圖目錄 IV 表目錄 VI 第一章 序論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究問題與目的 2 第三節 研究流程 3 第二章 文獻回顧 5 第一節 顧客價值 5 第二節 顧客終生價值 12 第三節 產品生命週期 16 第四節 時間序列 22 第三章 研究方法 27 第一節 ARIMA模式 29 第二節 介入模式 47 第四章 實證分析 53 第一節 資料之描述與整理 53 第二節 異常事件之確認 55 第三節 介入模式建立 66 第四節 顧客價值之計算 80 第五章 結論與建議 83 第一節 研究結果 83 第二節 研究限制 84 第三節 行銷意涵及後續研究方向 85 參考文獻 86 中文部分 86 英文部分 87 附錄一 90 | |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
| dc.subject | 介入模型 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 異常事件 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 顧客價值 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 時間序列 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | Abnormal event | en |
| dc.subject | Intervention model | en |
| dc.subject | Time series | en |
| dc.subject | Customer value | en |
| dc.title | 異常事件對於顧客價值之影響效果
－總體時間序列模型之研究 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | The Impact of Abnormal Event to Customer Value
－A Research of Time Series Model in An Aggregate View | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 95-2 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 周建亨(Chien-Heng Chou),陳靜怡(Ching-I Chen) | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 異常事件,顧客價值,時間序列,介入模型, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | Abnormal event,Customer value,Time series,Intervention model, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 89 | |
| dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2007-07-09 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 管理學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 國際企業學研究所 | zh_TW |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 國際企業學系 | |
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