台灣銀行業合併換股比率影響因素之探討

Abstract

1990年代開放新銀行的設立，造成國內銀行家數過多，形成過度競爭， 台灣金融業目前的發展劣勢即在於金融業同質性偏高，獲利空間有限。因此，蔚然興起的銀行合併風潮儼然成為國內解決銀行業困境之不可避免的手段。然而，合併雙方對換股比率的認定若能取得協議，則整個併購案之成功機率將大為提昇。而購併換股比率之評價可謂並沒有絕對標準，由於國內缺乏具公信力的換股比率訂定原則，使得換股比率可以昨是而今非，其價值可高可低，極易被運用做為炒作及利益輸送的工具。 本文旨在探討銀行間合併換股比率之決定因素，不同於過去以金控公司及旗下各子公司合併為主要對象之研究主題，以複迴歸方法分析各財務指標及非財務指標與所決定之換股比率之間呈現何種關係，瞭解受到高度管制的銀行業，如何從合併談判過程中訂出一個適當並能為合併雙方股東所能接受的換股比率，藉由主併者與被併者之各項指標有無顯著差異，進一步歸納出主併者與被併者之特質。 實證結果顯示，在財務因素方面，銀行在合併前的獲利性、流動性等各方面表現愈佳時，則成為主併銀行的機率愈大；銀行每股淨值與換股比率呈正向關係，且具統計顯著性。此意謂銀行每股淨值愈高，愈有助於提升其議價能力。而在非財務因素方面，銀行營業據點集中都會區程度與換股比率亦具統計顯著性，且呈正向關係。因此，現階段分行據點仍為銀行提供各項金融商品與服務的主要通路，故有其經濟價值，營業據點集中都會區之程度愈高，亦成為換股比率加碼與提高合併談判籌碼因素之一。

The offerings of mergers and acquisitions（M&A）of financial institutions in Taiwan are commonly made through stock-for-stock exchanges. One important issue is to assess whether the acquiring firm offers a reasonable price to the target firm, which significantly affects the interests of both firms’ shareholders. This thesis collects 20 cases of M&A of banking institutions in Taiwan from February 2002 to June 2007. It reviews the literature on decisions regarding exchange offerings, employs regression analysis based on these cases, discusses the problems of current practice, and finally draws some suggestions. This thesis examines the relationship between exchange ratios and key factors from both the financial and non-financial perspectives. It shows that the financial perspective is not the only factor in deciding the exchange ratio. Instead, both the book value and the number of branches in urban areas of target firms exhibit significantly positive effects on the number of stocks of the acquiring firm which per unit stock of the target firm can exchange.