台電公司的價值評估探討

Abstract

展望未來國際經濟與國內經濟均顯現持續成長的榮景，電力需求亦將隨著經濟成長而持續成長，尤其開發中國家電力成長更為可觀。但不幸的是全球能源供應吃緊，在再生能源與新能源能替代傳統能源以前，傳統能源包括發電所需的燃煤、燃油、天然氣與核能因供不應求而導致價格持續上漲。燃料價格的上升必然造成發電成本的上升，不利於主導我國電業市場的台電公司的營運。 電業法修法已於95年底送到立法院進行修法，依據行政院通過的修法版本，如立法完成後，台電公司必須將電力調度、負載預測與輸電網路指揮權交由電力調度中心負責，台電公司不再享有發電調度與輸電網路控制權。新綜合電業、發電業、輸電業、配電業均可立即申請設立，成為台電公司的競爭對手，再加上台電必須按階段逐漸將特高壓、高壓與一般用戶開放購電選擇權，台電公司將面臨流失既有用戶，尤其是對高壓以上之大用戶的流失將形成極大壓力。而台電公司將仍維持綜合電業，但負有穩定供電義務。因此在未來仍需投資大量資金興建發電與輸、配電設施，在合理反應成本調整電價不易的情況下，必需舉債籌措投資資金，不利公司營運。 依據政府規劃在電業自由化後實施台電公司之民營化。民營化過程除需配合建立制度、修改規章外，勢必需面對工會與員工之反對以及優良人才之流失等問題，恐需及早規劃適應。 台電公司在面臨上述電業自由化與民營化之衝擊，以及燃料成本大幅上升，而電力需求又持續成長下，擬定未來十年經營策略。本研究即在分析與評估該經營策略，並參考該經營策略與目標，擬定簡易財務分析模式，並以絕對評估法的股利折現模式據以計算與評估台電公司的價值。同時也蒐集經營環境、範圍與產品內容與台電公司非常相似的7家日本電力公的財務報表與相關資訊，根據該等公司的銷售金額、收益、資產總值、市場價值、每股股價、股東權益、與股數等數據，計算該7家電力公司之EPS、每股股東權益(BVPS)與稅前息前折舊前營業利益(EBITDA)等再計算平均值。再以相對評估法的本益比 (P/E) 法、投入資本市值與稅前息前折舊前營業利益比 (EV/ EBITDA) 法與市場價格與帳面價格比(P/B) 法等分別計算公司價值，最後並以綜合法評估價值，來與絕對評估法的評估結果做比較，以提供未來台電公司民營化過程進行價值評估之參考。

With the prospecting boom of both international and national economy, the demand of power supply increases as the economy grows, especially in the developing countries. However, due to the shortage of global energy supply and immature of renewable energy, the price of traditional energy skyrockets, including coal, natural gas and nuclear fuel. The increase of fuel price will certainly drive up the cost of power generation, which is harmful to the operation of Taiwan Power Company, the leading company in the electricity market of Taiwan.

The amendment of Electricity Act had been submitted to Legislative Yuan for legislating in the end of year 2006. Once the aforesaid amendment being legislated, Taiwan Power Company shall transfer the authority of Electric Supervision，Electric Load Prediction and Electric Transmission Network Supervision to Independent Supervisory Organization(ISO) and will no longer entitle the right of Electric Power Network Supervision. Furthermore, new competitors including New Synthesized Electric Operators、Electric Power Generating Operators、Electric Power Transmission Operators and Electric Power Distribution Operators will also enter the electricity market immediately. In addition to above, Taiwan Power Company shall open Electric Power Purchase Options to Super-High Voltage、High Voltage and Common Voltage Customers gradually, which may result in losing current customers in the long run, especially for High and above Voltage Customers. However, Taiwan Power Company is requested to maintain as a Synthesized Electric Operators and obligated to supply electricity. Therefore, it is still necessary for Taipower to invest heavily in new electricity infrastructure. Alone with the difficulty of adjusting electricity price to reasonably reflect the increase of cost, Taipower thus has to raise the loans for collecting funds of capital investment, which subsequently worsen the financial structure of the company.

In accordance with government plan, Taiwan Power Company will be privatized after the liberalization of electricity market. During the privatization process, Taiwan Power Company eventually has to face various problems, such as the opposition of labor union and the loss of decent employees. It is indeed necessary for Taiwan Power Company to get prepared early.

Facing the aforesaid electricity liberalization, company privatization, and the skyrocket of fuel price, along with the continuous growth of demand on electricity, Taiwan Power Company initiates a ten-year operation strategy. This study is to evaluate and assess the aforesaid operation strategy, and then initiate a simplified financial analysis model to calculate and evaluate the value of Taiwan Power Company through Dividend Discount Model (DDM) of the Absolute Valuation Model. This study at the same time also collects financial statements and related information from seven Japanese power companies, which have similar business environment, scope and product portfolio as Taipower. Based on the data collected, including sales number, revenue, net value of capital, market value, stock prices, equities of shareholders, and stock volumes, the EPS, BVPS, and EBITDA of the above mentioned seven Japanese companies are calculated. Moreover, each company’s value is calculated through P/E, EV/ EBITDA, and P/B method and then evaluated by Synthesized Valuation Model to compare with the outcomes obtained from Absolute Valuation Model. These results are to be provided as reference for valuation of Taipower during the privatization process.