製造服務產業以產能服務為考量的競爭分析：差異品質與對數常態需求之雙佔情境

Abstract

生產全球化開創了蓬勃發展的製造服務產業，許多高科技製造服務廠商已經是大型國際化的企業，經常主動與產品廠商建立生產供應關係，形成新的「產品工程－技術製造」複合鏈。在高科技製造領域，產品需求非常不確定、產能投資成本又很高，製造廠商進行產能投資面對非常高的企業風險，但若產能擴充保守，產能供應不足的可能性往往成為產品公司關切的議題。本文將「工程－製造」鏈的產能確定性視為製造服務的競爭策略，建構服務競爭的數學模式，並分析雙佔廠商的競爭行為。基於產能服務的品質，本文提出一個新穎的需求分配法則，推導兩家廠商在競爭情境的反應函數，並證明兩家廠商的產能策略存在單一均衡點。基於產能服務品質的均衡點與反應函數，本研究發現，當領導廠商面對跟隨廠商的激進產能擴充行為，會採取較為保守的反應，以避免產業供給過剩，而當跟隨廠商面對領導廠商的激進行為，卻傾向採取激進行為，以防止其客戶流失。

Globalization of production has ushered in vibrant manufacturing service industries. Many high-technology manufacturing service firms are no longer small shops on the receiving end of outsourced jobs. Instead, they frequently take initiative to forge supply relationships with product firms. In these engineering-manufacturing chains, certainty of capacity supply is an important concern as conservative (insufficient) capacity expansion is frequently prompted by high uncertainty of demand and investment risk. Capacity strategy has traditionally been discussed from a manufacturer’s perspective to time or size the investment, or to compete in a game setting. In the era of manufacturing services, customers’ concern of capacity (supply) certainty should be included as an important factor in formulating a capacity strategy. This paper presents a mathematical analysis of this new aspect. Uncertain demand is modeled as a lognormal random variable. A novel service-based demand rationing rule is developed for a duopoly of differentiated prices and lognormal random demand. Through numerical calculation, this paper shows the equilibrium of capacity strategy of the duopoly and analyzes their competition behavior on capacity services.