泰國爆發禽流感對中國台灣與東南亞國家的經濟影響 之評估

Abstract

本研究探討若泰國爆發禽流感對中國、台灣和東南亞國家的經濟影響。主要是由家禽部門之疫情來影響泰國之總體經濟。本研究利用多國可計算一般均衡模型來評估由於家禽部門疫情而影響之國際間生產、出口以及就業變化。 實證模擬分析的結果指出禽流感將會在泰國再度地爆發。家禽部門疫情將會造成泰國的實質GDP 減少0.69%~0.78%，但卻對其他國家不會造成太大的影響。又若假設每個國家爆發等同於泰國疫情程度之禽流感疫情，此時中國影響將最為嚴重，其次是越南。在此同時，台灣實質GDP 的影響卻非常小。 除此之外，禽流感疫情不但會造成一個國家產業部門的損失，且也會影響其他國家的產業，例如批發業、零售業、飼料業和食用性產品。

This study discusses the socio-economic impacts of avian flu on China, Taiwan and South-East Asia countries when exploded from Thailand. The impacts on macroeconomics and Thailand’s poultry sector are the major concerns of this crisis. A multi-country computable general equilibrium model is employed to evaluate the production, export, and employment variation which took an effect together with the poultry sector. The model simulation results indicate that if the avian flu is exploded from Thailand’s poultry sector, Thailand’s real GDP would drop -0.69~-0.78% but no large effects are found in other neighboring countries except China. When the Southeast Asian countries suffer from reduced poultry exports, it will also affect China. On the other hand, when China was heavily shocked by the outbreak, it will not only take an effect to the Southeast Asia countries but also take a toll to Taiwan’s economy along with rest of the world through trade links.