美中競逐下的國際危機與權力轉移理論：權力資源vs.影響力

Abstract

中國崛起為90年代以來國際關係中最重要的議題之一，探討現存霸權與新興強權間權力變動關係的權力轉移理論因而再度受到各界重視。在中國崛起的過程中，爆發了兩次引起強權國家權力地位大幅變動的國際金融危機，即亞洲金融危機（1997-1999）和全球金融危機（2008-2009）。事實上，權力轉移理論並未關注週期性的區域或全球金融危機對權力轉移所造成的影響，而僅僅關注強權戰爭。然而，在強權戰爭缺乏的全球化時代，權力轉移理論的解釋效力將受到限制。再者，權力轉移理論僅以權力資源，尤其是軍事力，來界定強權國家在國際體系中的相對位置，忽視權力的應用面向和權力的關係面向。實際上，強權國家如何應用其所擁有的權力資源會影響其他國家對其地位的主觀感知，此主觀感知與強權國家的影響力相關，強權國家的影響力又將對其與其他國家的互動關係產生實質影響。而在危機時刻，強權國家權力的應用和關係面向更為重要。本文將以亞洲金融危機和全球金融危機所造成強權國家權力資源和影響力的消長，來解釋兩次危機過後中國國際地位的大幅躍進，以及美國與中國的權力轉移，並探討此對權力轉移理論的啟示。

The rise of China is one of the most important issues in international relations since the 1990’s. Power transition theory, which focuses on power shifts in relations between an existing hegemon and a rising great power, is accordingly receiving academic attention again. In the process of China’s rise, there have been two international financial crises—the Asian Financial Crisis (1997-1999) and the Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009). Both brought considerable changes to the power distribution among great powers. Power transition theory always emphasizes great power wars to the exclusion of the impact of periodic regional or global financial crises on power transitions. However, in this globalized era, the absence of great power wars had limited the explanatory effectiveness of power transition theory. Furthermore, power transition theory defines great powers’ relative status in the international system only in terms of power resources, especially military power, ignoring the exertive and relational aspects of power. As a matter of fact, how great powers exert their power resources will have an effect on other nations’ subjective perceptions of their status and influence. These subjective perceptions are related to great powers’ influence. The influence of great powers shapes the interactions between other nations and themselves. In times of crisis, the exertive and relational aspects of power become more important. This thesis uses the ebb and flow of great powers’ power resources and influence caused by the Asian Financial Crisis and Global Financial Crisis to explain China’s tremendous leap in international status in the post-crisis period and to discuss the power transition between the United States and China. Moreover it also provides new insights to power transition theory and its application.