金馬「小三通」政策發展過程之分析(2000-2007)

Abstract

由於金馬地區居民對於「小三通」政策的期望，與中央政府的理性決策考量存在若干程度的落差，近七年以來對該項政策執行成效的評價，並未隨著人員船舶往來數量與人均生產毛額（GNP）的成長而提升。但整體而言，「小三通」政策為離島地區、大陸福建臺商及兩岸文化、教育、宗教及體育等交流活動開闢了一條便捷的通道，對於促進金馬地區的經濟發展，具有相當正面的意義。 本文嘗試以Graham Allison及Philip Zelikow所提出之決策過程理論三種模式，檢驗「小三通」政策制定、執行及演變過程中，決策者之抉擇過程是否符合其中一種模式或多種模式，並試以整合理論三種學派解釋中央政府與地方政府的偏好，以及分析「小三通」試辦經驗對未來「大三通」的啟示，以供政府部門及後續研究者之參考。 本研究經由文獻分析、田野調查及深度訪談結果，有以下六點重要發現：一、從「質」與「量」變化規律可補充解釋政治經濟對金馬「小三通」政策的影響；二、決策過程理論於不同階段有其解釋上不同適用性；三、「小三通」政策的未來發展，將繫於兩岸能否重新啟動對話協商機制；四、整合理論的「功能主義」及「新功能主義」可證明地方與中央偏好的差異；五、國家安全威脅難從「小三通」政策充分獲得驗證；六、「小三通」及「大三通」政策將朝國際上獨特的整合模式擴溢發展。

This study attempts to use the three models of decision-making developed by Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow to examine whether the decision-making process fits in one or more of the three models in the enactment, implementation and evolution processes of the “Mini Three Links” policy, to explain the preferences of the central and local government by integrating three theoretical schools, as well as to explore the enlightenment of the preliminary experience of “mini three links” to the future “three links”. Based on a literature review, field survey and in-depth interviews, there are six findings: 1) Change patterns from “quality” to “quantity” can be supplementary to explain the influences of “Mini Three Links” of Jinmen and Matsu; 2) Decision process theory has different applications on explanations in different stages; 3) Functionalism and Neo- Functionalism of integrative theories can prove the differences of preferences of the central and local governments; 4) the Functionalism and the Neo-Functionalism of the Theory of Integration can prove the bias between local governments and central government; 5) Thread of national security can not be fully testified from the policies of “Mini Three Links；and 6) Policies of “Mini Three Links” and “Three Links” will be developed in “spill-over effect” towards an internationally unique integration model.