從實質選擇權觀點分析消費者遞延購買易逝性高科技產品之行為： 以4G手機為例

Abstract

市場上消費者常面對一個兩難的抉擇：應該立即購買新一代的高科技產品，還是要等待觀望，繼續使用既有的舊一代產品？根據Rogers(1962)年提出的創新採用曲線(Adoption of Innovation)，消費者多數皆會選擇遞延購買，但Rogers並無解釋各群消費者之所以有不同遞延時程之因素。 本研究有別於過去消費者行為領域所提及的延遲選擇之論點，改從實質選擇權 (本文指遞延選擇權) 觀點，提出消費者認知的不確定性程度，會影響其遞延購買易逝性高科技產品之時程，並以4G手機為例，採LISREL方法進行實證研究。研究結果證實當消費者認知的不確定性越高 (科技不確定性、市場不確定性、以及競爭不確定性)，所認知的時間價值(等待與觀望價值)亦越高，且傾向遞延購買4G手機的時程會越久。本研究並將預期價格下降、轉換成本、群體影響等三個因素列為控制變項， 並證實二個干擾變項(消費者認知的風險承受度和消費者創新度)會間接影響消費者遞延購買的時程。 過去實質選擇權的概念應用在行銷領域上的文獻不多，且多半應用在探討賣方行為，極少有探討消費者行為的，本研究的貢獻即是首次由遞延選擇權觀點，分析消費者遞延購買之行為過程乃建立在對不確定性和時間價值之認知的基礎上， 並以此補充Rogers於1962年所提出的創新採用曲線(Innovation Adoption Curve)無法解釋的結果。

Consumers often face the dilemma of choosing between keeping the existing products and upgrading to a new version. According to the curve of adoption of innovations (Rogers, 1962), most of consumers tend to defer their purchase of new high-tech products, however, Rogers does not explain the reason why some consumers defer shorter time, others defer longer. Different from the arguments regarding “decision deferral” which appear in the prior literatures discussing consumer behavior, this study applies the real options concept (i.e. Option to Defer) to analyze how consumers’ perceived uncertainties will affect their purchase delay of new perishable technology products. The 4G mobile phone is taken as an example to proceed with the experimental research by using LISREL 8.8. The major findings prove that the consumer who perceives high technological uncertainty, market uncertainty, and competitive volatility, will also thinks highly of “Wait & See” strategies, and thus intends to increase the time length of purchase delay for a 4G mobile phone. In addition, the factors, expected price decreasing, switching costs, and group influence are discussed as control variables; the two moderating variables, risk tolerance and consumer innovativeness, are also proved to indirectly reduce the time length of consumers’ intention of purchase delay for a 4G mobile phone. This research contributes to managerial implications in several points. There are only a few literatures implementing the real options concept in the marketing sphere, most of which, however, analyze the firms’ options. This study is the vanguard of using the concept of Option to Defer to analyze the consumers’ options. The theoretical basis is found in the consumer’s perception of time value under uncertainties, which accounts for the different time length of consumers’ purchase delay for innovations. This research result makes up the deficiency of Innovation Adoption Curve of Rogers (1962); the consumer’s perception of uncertainties explains why different groups of people in Rogers’ Innovation Adoption Curve (1962) adopt the innovations in different timing.