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完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 任立中(Li-Chung Jen) | |
dc.contributor.author | Ting-Chun Lin | en |
dc.contributor.author | 林亭君 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-08T07:28:21Z | - |
dc.date.copyright | 2008-07-10 | |
dc.date.issued | 2008 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2008-07-07 | |
dc.identifier.citation | 一、 中文部份
1. 林德國,'口碑行銷:如何引爆口耳相傳的神奇威力',遠流出版社,民國九十年四月。 2. 唐錦超,'創新的擴散',遠流出版社,民國九十五年十一月。 3. 王薇雲,'個人偏好與產品擴散模式在創新產品銷售預測能力之比較-以電影為例',國立台灣大學,民國八十九年六月。 4. 林彥宏,'網路口碑對消費者購買決策影響之探討',國立中央大學,民國九十四年六月。 5. 錢欣樺,'網路口耳相傳訊息與企業回應策略對消費者態度之影響-以購物網站為例',國立台灣大學,民國九十五年六月。 二、 英文部分 1. Arndt, Johan (1967), 'Role of Product-Related Conversations in the Diffusion of a New Product', Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 4, pp.291-295. 2. Austin Bruce (1989), 'Immediate Seating: A Look at Movie Audiences' Belmont, CA: Wadsworth. 3. Bass, F. M. (1969), 'A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables,' Management Science, Vol. 15, No. 5, pp. 215-227. 4. Bayus, Berry (1985), 'Word of Mouth: The Indirect Effect of Marketing Efforts' Journal of Advertising Research. 5. Blackwell, R. D., Miniard, P. W., and Engel, J. F. (2001), 'Consumer Behavior', 9th edition, NY: Harcour College Publishers. 6. Bone, P. F. (1995), 'Word-of-Mouth Effects on Short-Term and Long-Term Product Judgment', Journal of Business Research, 32, pp. 213-223. 7. Chrysanthos Dellarocas, Neveen Farag Awad, and Xiaoquan (Michael Zhang), (2004), 'Exploring the Value of Online Reviews to Organization:Implications for Revenue Forecasting Planning' Preliminary and Incomplete. 8. Faber, Ronald and Thomas O'Guinn (1984), 'Effect of Media Advertising and Other Sources on Movie Selection' Journalism Quaterly. 9. Jehoshua Eliashberg, and Steven M, Shugan, (1997), 'Film Critics: Influencers or Predictors?' Journal of Marketing. 10. Jehoshua Eliashberg, Jedidi-Jah Jonker, Mohanbir S. Sawhney, and Berend Wierenga ,(2000), 'MOVIEMOD:An Implementable Decision-Support System for Prereleae Market Evaluation of Motion Pictures' Marketing Science. 11. Kotler, P., Ang, S. H., Leong, S.M. and Tan, C. T. (1999), 'Marketing Management', 2nd ed., New Jersey:Prentice Hall. 12. Mahajan, V., Muller, E. and Bass, F. M.(1990), 'New products diffusion models in marketing: a review and direction for research,' Journal of Marketing, Vol. 54, pp. 1-26. 13. Mahajan, V., Muller, E. and Srivastava, R. K. (1990),'Determination of adopter categories by using innovation diffusion models,' Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 15, pp. 37-50. 14. Neelamegham, Ramya and Pradeep Chintagunta, (1999) 'A Bayesian Model of Forecast New Product Performance in Domestic and International Markets' Marketing Science. 15. Rogers, E. M. (1995), 'Diffusion of Innovation', 4th ed., New York: The Free Press. 16. Schiffman, W. L. and Kaunk, L. L.(2001), 'Consumer Behavior', 7th ed., New Jersey:Prentice Hall, pp. 4. 17. Schmittlein, D. and Mahajan, V.(1982), 'Maximum Likelihood Estimation for an Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance', Marketing Science, Vol. 1(1)(Winter), pp.57-78. 18. Silverman G. (1997), 'How to Hamess the Awesome Power of Word-of-Mouth', Direct Marketing, November, pp. 32-37. 19. Srinivasan, V. and Mason, C. H.(1986), 'Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of New Product Diffusion Models', Marketing Science, Vol. 5(2)(Spring), pp. 169-178. 20. Westbrook, R. A. (1987), 'Product/Consumption-Based Affective Responses and Postpurchase Processes', Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 24, pp. 258-27. 21. Yong Liu, (2006), 'Word of Mouth for Movies:Its Dynamics and Impact on Box Office Revenue' Journal of Marketing. | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/26841 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 這是一個快速經濟的時代,現在的消費者口味多變,企業為了迎合消費者,往往不斷的推出新產品。同時,在這資訊極為流通的時代,消費者無時不接受到「口碑」及「網路口碑」的訊息,也因此左右了消費者的消費決定。而電影等娛樂產業的產品,與一般的耐久財相較,更具有快速變遷、生命週期短且不確定性高的特性。因此對電影出版者而言,希望有一套完整的預測模式來預測電影的銷售量。而過去研究探討的口碑效果對電影票房的影響,多著重於口碑效果對於整體票房的影響力,極少探討到口碑的動態性效果。
本研究以美國IMDB網站(www.imdb.com)為資料的來源,蒐集2006年在美國上映的電影中,總票房最高的前30名電影的上映資料為研究對象,並且蒐集這30部電影的各週的消費者評分、消費者評分人數及其他電影的基本資料。而研究分析模式的主要分析方法為Bass 擴散模式及線性迴歸模式。其中Bass 擴散模式更包含了Bass 擴散模式的原型和修正過後的Bass 擴散模式,其中修正過後的Bass 擴散模式是將模仿係數q做不同的設定。線性迴歸模式則是分別以每週各電影資料的自變數的組合,以應變數為當週票房boxofficet跑線性迴歸,也以應變數為當週票房與上週票房的變化率 跑線性迴歸。 在兩種主要模式的分析之下,研究電影的口碑效果是否的確具有動態性影響,並且探討哪些自變數會影響到當週票房及票房變化率,有哪些自變數會造成正向且顯著的影響?針對研究結果提出行銷意涵,期望對企業有所貢獻,也對後續研究有所助益。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | We live in a generation of fast economy and the tastes of the consumer are highly changeable. All enterprises want to catch the appetite of the consumers, giving them the best and the most suitable product. Meanwhile, in the generation that the information circulate so fast, consumers’ decisions are affected by the “word-of-mouth” and “word-of-mouse”. Movie and the entertainment industry are especially affected by these information flows. Comparing with the durable goods, entertainment industry provides the products with the characteristics of changing speedy and short product life cycle. Therefore, the movie publishers are willing to know what the consumers really want and what really have impact on their choice.
The database of this research is American website: IMDB (www.imdb.com). I collected the top 30 selling movies in America during the year 2006 and the information and critics of the movies on the website for research purpose. The research models are Bass Diffusion model and linear regression. Among the Bass Diffusion model, there are the prototype and the revise type of it. The revise model changes the imitation factor q. And the linear regression is the combinations of the movie independent variable with the box office on the current week and the variation rate of movie box office. Under these models, the research examines whether there’s a movement of movie word-of-mouse, and what kinds of independent variable will have the positive effect on the box office on the current week and the variation rate of movie box office. In light of the research results, hoping to find out the marketing meaning of the movie industry and also having contribution to the further research. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-08T07:28:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-97-R95724051-1.pdf: 453118 bytes, checksum: 4f2cf52e2736c361fea73ce6328123ea (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 口試委員審定書..........................................................................................................I
誌謝..............................................................................................................................II 中文摘要......................................................................................................................III 英文摘要......................................................................................................................IV 目錄...............................................................................................................................V 第一章 緒論 第一節 研究背景與動機.......................................................................................1 第二節 研究目的...................................................................................................1 第三節 論文架構概述...........................................................................................2 第二章 文獻探討 第一節 口碑效果...................................................................................................4 一、口碑的定義...................................................................................................4 二、口碑的使用時機...........................................................................................5 三、口碑的說服效果...........................................................................................6 第二節 網路口碑...................................................................................................7 一、網路口碑的形式和定義...............................................................................7 二、傳統口碑與網路口碑的差異.......................................................................7 第三節 創新擴散概念...........................................................................................8 一、創新使用者類型...........................................................................................8 二、創新決策過程的模式..................................................................................10 三、溝通效果層級..............................................................................................11 四、決定接受創新接受率的變數......................................................................13 第四節 擴散模式..................................................................................................15 一、Bass擴散模式..............................................................................................15 二、Bass擴散模式參數估計法..........................................................................16 第三章 研究方法 第一節 研究架構..................................................................................................21 第二節 研究方法與模式......................................................................................22 一、Bass連續型擴散模式的原型.....................................................................22 二、線性迴歸.....................................................................................................24 第四章 實證分析研究 第一節 資料來源分析.........................................................................................26 一、電影銷售資料.............................................................................................26 第二節 實證模型建構.........................................................................................31 一、Bass連續型擴散模式的原型.....................................................................31 二、修正後的Bass連續型擴散模式 ..............................................................31 三、線性迴歸 ...................................................................................................31 第五章 結論與建議 第一節 研究數據與結果.....................................................................................34 一、Bass連續型擴散模式的原型....................................................................34 二、修正後的Bass連續型擴散模式...............................................................41 三、線性迴歸....................................................................................................48 第二節 研究發現與行銷意涵............................................................................50 第三節 研究限制................................................................................................51 一、基本資料限制............................................................................................51 二、模式限制....................................................................................................51 第四節 後續研究建議........................................................................................51 一、基本資料的搜集........................................................................................51 二、模式限制....................................................................................................52 圖目錄 圖2-3-1 創新產品使用者類型(Rogers分法) ......................................................8 圖2-3-2 創新產品使用者類型(Bass分法) ........................................................10 圖2-3-3 創新決策模式.........................................................................................11 表目錄 表2-1 創新決策過程的各個階段......................................................................12 表3-2 口碑效果的評分的四大類型..................................................................23 表4-1 30部電影基本資料.................................................................................29 表5-1-1 Bass連續型擴散模式的原型,q>0.0001.........................................34 表5-1-2 Bass連續型擴散模式的原型,q>0.00001.........................................36 表5-1-3 Bass連續型擴散模式的原型,q>0.000001.......................................38 表5-1-4 修正後的Bass連續型擴散模式,q=v*g...........................................41 表5-1-5 修正後的Bass連續型擴散模式,q=v*wom.....................................43 表5-1-6 修正後的Bass連續型擴散模式,q=v*ab.........................................45 表5-1-7 應變數為boxofficet..............................................................................48 表5-1-8 應變數為 .........................................................49 表5-1-9 boxoffice = + theater + totalt-1 + avgt-1...........................49 參考文獻 一、中文部份.........................................................................................................53 二、英文部分.........................................................................................................53 附錄 附錄一 各電影的票房變化趨勢.........................................................................56 | |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
dc.title | 口碑效果的動態性-以美國電影為例 | zh_TW |
dc.title | The Dynamic Effect of Word of Mouth-Take American Movies as Examples | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 96-2 | |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 謝明慧,周建亨 | |
dc.subject.keyword | 電影,口碑效果,動態性,Bass擴散模式,線性迴歸, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | movie,WOM,dynamic effect,Bass diffusion model,linear regression, | en |
dc.relation.page | 65 | |
dc.rights.note | 未授權 | |
dc.date.accepted | 2008-07-08 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 管理學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 國際企業學研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 國際企業學系 |
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