外商直接投資對江蘇省縣域經濟成長之空間分析

Abstract

在今日國際分工及經濟全球化的態勢下，各個國家間無論在政治、經濟、社會等各方面，皆相互依賴、影響、約束，儼然已成為關係密不可分的統一體。在這樣的背景下，對外開放對一國經濟發展具有越來越重要的意義，而外商直接投資似乎己成為參與國際生產的一個重要途徑。江蘇省是中國開放型經濟發展卓有成效的省份之一，在中國引進外資進程中，江蘇省是最早引進外資的省區之一。 本研究選擇1997年至2006年江蘇省縣域之數據資料，以人均GDP為被解釋變數，人口密度、人力資本、基本建設支出、城鄉居民人均儲蓄存款總額、外商直接投資數額及進出口總額六項社經變項，為解釋變數，採用傳統迴歸模型（OLS Model）、空間落遲模型（Spatial Lag Model）以及空間誤差模型（Spatial Error Model）三種模型來分析外商直接投資引進對促進江蘇各縣域之經濟增長的綜合效果，並分析中國於2001年底加入WTO後，FDI的變動對於江蘇省各縣域之間經濟發展是否存在明顯的差異性及該省經濟成長是否受FDI空間因素的影響而存在空間鄰近效應。 實證結果顯示，FDI對於江蘇各縣域之經濟增長具有很大的影響，且在中國加入WTO之後，對外開放政策促使外資大量進入，促進江蘇省經濟的快速成長。另FDI具有聚集性，而影響到人均GDP亦有聚集性，具有空間效應。

Today globalization has been tremendously influential to our politics, economy and society development. Countries are mutually reliant, influential yet also confined. They are regarded as an integrated unity internationally. Growth from introducing FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) plays an important role in globalization. Jiangsu Province, one of the earliest provinces of China introducing FDI, is of high significance on FDI benefit. This paper looks into the influence of FDI to GDP per capita (explained variable) change of counties in Jiangsu Province from 1997 to 2006 with analysis of variables from density of population, labor input, infrastructure expenditure, average saving, FDI, Import-Export by using OLS Model, Spatial Lag Model and Spatial Error Model. It also analyses the influence of WTO and whether if it is differently developed by different FDI injections and the spatial effect from FDI. The finding shows FDI is substantially important to the growth of counties in Jiangsu Province. After China joined the WTO, the open policy had made FDI injection. Further FDI can promote Jiangsu Province’s economic growth rapidly. FDI also has spatial neighborhood effect and influences GDP per capita is the same effect.