歐元區擴大之路—2004年新加入歐盟十國探討

Abstract

歐盟自2004擴大以來，新增了中歐與東歐的國家，近年來這些國家也不斷的調整其國內的經濟情況以符合馬垂斯克條約的標準(Maastricht Criteria)，因而改變了國內的各項經濟指標，以更符合加入貨幣區間的要素，降低遭受非系統性衝的機會，並可增加吸收衝擊的能力。本文引用最適貨幣區間理論的景氣循環與經濟開放程度等四項經濟屬性檢測其是否具備加入最適貨幣區間的條件，同時也檢測這些國家中馬斯垂克趨合要件的各項變數，以比較兩者間的差異。 本文結論認為雖然大部分新加入國家在趨合要件上有達到標準，但除斯洛維尼亞外，各國的收入水平仍遠低於歐元區的水平; 而除賽普勒斯與馬爾他外，各國銀行資產佔GDP的比例都較低於歐元區的國家，凸顯出雖然舊有共產國家以完全轉換成市場經濟，但其經濟的基礎結構似乎仍須一些時間來調整。另雖新加入各國與歐元區的景氣循環不低，產業結構差異也在一定的範圍內，但比其既有歐盟區的大部分國家，仍有一段需要努力的空間。

After the EU enlargement in 2004, the new acceding countries from central and east Europe had been continuously adjusting their domestic economic situation to fulfill the Maastricht Criteria and satisfy the factors for joining the optimal currency area, so that they can lower the opportunities of suffering the asymmetry shock and increase the ability to absorb shocks. Four economic factors such as openness and the correlation of business cycle are examined in this paper to understand if the new acceding countries are adapted to join this currency area. Meanwhile, in order to compare the difference of OCA theory and Maastricht Criteria, the variables of Maastricht Criteria will also be examined. The conclusion of this paper shows that, though most new acceding countries fulfill the requirements of Maastricht Criteria, except to Slovenia, the income level of countries are still far behind the average of euro area. Except to Malta and Cyprus, the ratio of banking assets to GDP of new acceding countries are also lower than the euro countries. That shows though those old community countries were transformed their economics system to market economics, it still takes time to adjust the foundation of economics structures. The other results shows that the new acceding countries have high business cycle synchronization with the euro area and the differences of the industry structure are not obvious, but it still need more effort to catch up the level of most euro area countries.