後冷戰時代兩岸中美洲外交競逐之分析

Abstract

從1949年中共建政之後，我國與中共在全世界各地展開不同形式的外交競逐，一直到後冷戰時代，兩岸外交競逐的場域較明顯的，仍然是非洲及拉丁美洲加勒比海兩大區塊，其中，我國在非洲陸續失去塞內加爾、查德，並在2007年再度失去了馬拉威，目前僅剩下史瓦濟蘭、布吉那法索、甘比亞以及離島的聖多美普林西比四個國家，近年來亦沒有建立新的邦交關係；而在拉丁美洲與加勒比海方面方面，我國在後冷戰時代失去了格瑞那達及多米尼克，在2007年失去了我國在中美洲的重要邦交國-哥斯大黎加，但也在2007年重新恢復了與聖露西亞之間的邦交關係，對我國及中共而言，外交競逐的主要目標其中之一，就是對於我國的國際法理地位及國際生存空間之定義根據，而在2007年我國失去了哥斯大黎加以後，以往百分之百由我國所掌握的中美洲區塊，似乎也出現了外交警訊。 從後冷戰時代之後，所有拉美國家發展速度較以往快速許多，包括在政治方面，受到民主化的潮流影響，各國以紛紛由軍人強權統治轉為大部分以總統制為主的民主政體，但又在反美風潮的影響下，新興左派政黨透過民主的選舉方式紛紛在拉美各重要國家取得政權；在經濟方面，除了快速的自由化之外，區域統合似乎成為一種潮流，美洲在這方面的成就也是不遑多讓，不僅是「北美自由貿易區」(NAFTA)的成立使得美國、加拿大、墨西哥三國得以整合，在拉丁美洲更有六個經濟統合體在二次大戰之後陸續形成，其中由以南錐共同體(或稱南方共同市場)經濟力量最強大，也最有影響力；另外，後冷戰時代的拉丁美洲國家，亦開始追尋自己的國際地位及認同，因此各國對於國際多邊組織的積極參與亦是這個區域的另一重大轉變。綜合以上，在拉丁美洲轉變如此之大的現在，兩岸外交競逐應該要何去何從，是筆者關切的核心問題。 後冷戰時代兩岸在拉丁美洲地區的外交競逐更是我國重要對外政策議題之一，因為，筆者認為邦交國之存在於我國國際生存空間仍然是不可或缺，而拉丁美洲國家正是我國邦交國聚集的重要地區，尤其是中美洲地區，更是過去數十年來兩岸從事外交競賽的重要區塊，喪失這個區域的邦交國對我國而言，不僅在國際生存空間上損失慘重，更會失去他國給予的「外交承認」，影響不可謂不嚴重。因此，在後冷戰時代拉丁美洲的政經變遷是否會對拉美國家政治型態造成改變？是否有可能影響兩岸在此區域的政治勢力消長？以及兩岸目前拉美國家政經變遷之政策是否符合時宜？目前所採取的援助措施是否有修正必要？如何才能確保我國在此區塊的邦交關係？基於以上種種因素，筆者將本文研究範圍定為區域連動性相當強烈的中美洲，另外包含與中美洲互動密切的多明尼加及海地兩國，以免研究範圍過大而失焦。在本文中，筆者先評估我國過去與中共在拉丁美洲（尤其是中美洲、多明尼加及海地）之外交競逐及外交政策，並分析本文研究區域在後冷戰時代所產生的變化，其中也將包括分析「美洲自由貿易區」及「美國、多明尼加與中美洲五國自由貿易協定」的現況及過去整合過程作一系列的介紹，另外，筆者也將探討研究範圍國家在國際組織中的作為之改變，兼而分析對兩岸外交競逐之影響。 之後，筆者推論我國以及中共在回應中美洲、多明尼加及海地政經變遷所採取的方式，以及對於兩岸外交競逐之影響，之後討論兩岸在回應此議題的出發點異同以及回應方式上的交鋒與衝擊，最後筆者也將會全文作總結並對我國今後在中美洲、多明尼加及海地的外交政策提出建言

After the Chinese Communist Party established the PRC government in 1949, the PRC government and the ROC government launched in the all world different kind of Diplomatic Competition. In the Post Cold War Era, the territory of the competition is still obviously focused on Africa, Latin America and Caribbean Sea Area. In the Post Cold War Era, ROC lost Senegal and Chad in Africa, and also lost Malawi in 2007. Recently, ROC only have Swaziland, Burkina Faso, Gambia ans Sao Tome and Principe in Africa, and there’s no new diplomatic relationship established in this era. In Latin America and Caribbean Sea, ROC lost Granada and Dominic in this era and in 2007, Roc also lost Cost Rica, Which is one of the most important country in Central America, but in the same year ROC regained the relation with Santa Lucia. For ROC and PRC, one of the essential target of the diplomatic competition, is regarding the definition of the law status and the international existing space of ROC. As long as ROC lost Costa Rica in 2007, it seemed that there was a caution for ROC in the Central American area which is always well connected to ROC for the past 60 years. In the Post Cold War Era, Latin American countries developed very fast, and duo to the influence of the democratization, many countries transfered from military government to the the presidential system primarily democratic regime. Also because of th anti-America influence, the emerging left wing political party penetrated the democracy through the electral way to obtain the political power in Latin American; In the economical aspect, besides the fast liberalization, the regional integration becomes one kind of tidal current, those countries don’t spend much time in achievement. Not only “the North America free trading area” causes American, Canadian, the Mexican Three Kingdoms to be able the conformity, there is also six economical integration in Latin America after Second World War, and among them, the most influential integration should be MERCOSUD. Moreover, in the Post Cold War Era, Latin American countries also start to track down their own international recognition, therefore various countries participate in the international multilateral organization, and that would also be another significant transformation of this region. With the rapid change in Latin America, there will or will not exist change in the diplomatic competition of ROC and PRC is the main question which the author is concerned. In the Post Cold War Era, the diplomatic competition of ROC and PRC in the Latin America area are one of the important foreign policy subjects of ROC, because the existence of the diplomatic relation is still indispensable to the international existing space of ROC, and the Latin America country is precisely the most important region in the diplomatic relation of ROC, especially the Central America area. The Central America area is, in the past dozens of year, the most important sub-area of the ROC and PRC diplomatic competition. To ROC, the loss in this region is not only lost seriously in the international existing space, but also the loss of diplomatic acknowledge from other country. Therefore, whether the Latin America's political and economical change can create the change in Post Cold War Era to the Latin American countries? Whether there is the possibility that the change will affect the political influence of ROC and PRC? Whether ROC or PRC’s present Latin American policy is appropriate to the occasion? How can ROC guarantee its diplomatic relations in this sub-area? Based on all sorts of factors above, the author decide the scope to this article as Central America, moreover containing Dominican Republic and Haiti, which had close interacts with Central America, in order to avoid oversized research scope. In this paper, the author discusses first the past diplomatic competition and the foreign policy between ROC and PRC in Latin America (in particular Central America, Dominica and Haiti), and then analyzed this the regional political and economical change in the Post Cold War Era, in which will also include the analysis of “the Free Trade Area of the Americas” and “American, Dominican and the Central America trade agreement.” Moreover, the author will also discuss the change of behavior about the participation of international organization of these countries, and then analyze the potential consequence in the diplomatic competition of ROC and PRC. Afterwards, the author will discuss the potential responds of ROC as well as PRC in to the change of Central America, Dominica and Haiti, and also discuss the influence of the diplomatic competition. Moreover, the author will also discuss the similarities and differences as well as the confrontation and the impact of ROC and PRC in the diplomatic competition. In the end, the author will also propose some suggestion to the foreign policy of ROC in Central America, Dominican and Haiti's the proposal.