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完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 周雍強 | |
dc.contributor.author | Wen-Chi Sung | en |
dc.contributor.author | 宋文琪 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-08T06:57:45Z | - |
dc.date.copyright | 2009-07-17 | |
dc.date.issued | 2009 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2009-07-14 | |
dc.identifier.citation | [1] Benavides, D.L. and Johnson B., (1998),'Sequential Capacity Expansion with Increasing Returns to Scale and Path-Dependencies: A Compound Options Approach,' Proceedings of the Second Annual Conference on Real Option, Chicago, June.
[2] Benavides, D.L., Duley, J.R. and Johnson B.E., ( 1999), “As good as it gets: Optimal fab design and deployment,” IEEE Transactions on Semiconductor Manufacturing, Vol. 12,No. 3, pp. 281–287. [3] Black, F. and Scholes, M., (1999), “The pricing of options and corporate liabilities,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 81, No. 3, pp. 637–654. [4] Chou, Y.-C., Cheng, C.-T., Yang, F.-C., Liang, Y.-Y. (2007),” Evaluating alternative capacity strategies in semiconductor manufacturing under uncertain demand and price scenarios,” International Journal of Production Economics,Vol.105, pp.591-606 [5] Chou, Y.-C., (2007),” Using capacity as a competition strategy in a manufacturing duopoly,” Semiconductor Manufacturing, 2007. ISSM 2007. International Symposium on, pp.1-4 [6] Chung, S.H., Lee, A.H.I., Lai, C.M., Kuo, N.C., & Chen, J.R. (2002), “The construction of an order exchange evaluation mechanism for wafer fabs,” In 2002 International conference on modeling and analysis of semiconductor manufacturing. Tempe, Arizona. [7] Dixit, A. and Pindyck, R.S., (1994), “Investment under Uncertainty,” Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ,. [8] Eppen, G. D., Martin, R. K. and Schrage, L., (1989),“A Scenario Approach to Capacity Planning”, Operations Research, Vol. 37, No. 4, pp. 517–527. [9] Geng, N. and Jiang, Z., (2008),” A review on strategic capacity planning for the semiconductor manufacturing industry,” International Journal of Production Research iFirst, 1-17 [10] Johnson, B. and Billington, C., (2003),”Creating and leveraging options in the high technology supply chain. In Harrison, T. P., Lee, H. L., and Neale, J. J. (eds.),” The Practice of Supply Chain Management: Where Theory and Application Converge, International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, Kluwer Academic Publishers. [11] Julka, N., Baines, T., Tjahjono, B., Lendermann, P., and Vitanov, V., (2007), “A review of multi-factor capacity expansion models for manufacturing plants: Searching for a holistic decision aid,” International Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 106, No. 2, pp.607-621 [12] Liang, Y.-Y. and Chou, Y.-C., (2003),”Option-based capacity planning for semiconductor manufacturing,” In: IEEE International Symposium on Semiconductor Manufacturing, San Jose, California, USA, September 30–October 2, pp. 77–80. [13] Luenberger, D. G.,(1998), “Investment science,” New York, Oxford, OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS. [14] Majd, S. and Myers, S., (1990), “Abandonment value and project life,” Advances in Futuresand Options Research, Vol. 4, pp. 1–21. [15] Manne, A.S., (1961), “Capacity expansion and probabilistic growth,” Econometrica, Vol. 29,No. 4, pp. 632–649. [16] McDonald, R. and Siegel., D. (1985), “Investment and the valuation of firms when there is anoption to shut down,” International Econom. Review, Vol. 26, pp. 331–349. [17] Pindyck, R.S., (1988), “Irreversible investment, capacity choice, and the value of the firm,” The American Economic Review, Vol. 78, No. 5, pp. 969–985. [18] Tsay, R. S., (2002),”Analysis of Financial Time Series, “New York, United States of America, John Wiley and Sons, Inc. [19] Wu, S.D., Erkoc, M. and Karabuk, S., (2005),” Managing Capacity in the High-Tech Industry: A Review of Literature ,“The Engineering Economist ,50:2, 125-158 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/25968 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 高科技製造產業具有產品需求不確定、產能投資成本高,技術更迭快速等特性,在這樣的環境,經營風險高,加上產業景氣循環現象明顯,產能供給與需求經常發生失衡,而供需平衡與否為廠商獲利的主要因素之一。在產業環境中,需求是無法被控制的不確定因素,因此可控制的供給面便成為獲利的關鍵,故廠商的產能投資與策略應用變得重要,不僅決定廠商經營獲利,更會影響其長期競爭力。
多數產能投資策略的問題可以分為產能就緒時點(timing)和產能規模(sizing)決策兩種。就緒時點的決策為在什麼時候建置產能,其決策變數為時間;產能規模的決策則為在固定的時點下,決定要建置多少量,決策變數為數量。 本文為產能規劃方法的比較研究,針對就緒時點和規模決策模型提出一個公平的比較方法,以瞭解在如半導體製造產業的不確定環境中,各產能策略的規劃效果與行為表現,與不確定因素對於規劃績效的影響。而半導體製造產業中影響產能規劃不確定的因素有很多,諸如:需求的不確定、製造技術的不確定等,本文著重在探討需求的變異對於產能規劃方法選擇的影響。得到的結果為,在高度不確定的環境下,相較於產能規模決策,以產能就緒時點模型規劃有較好的績效表現。且就緒時點模型是較積極的產能投資策略;而規模決策模型為較保守的策略。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | High-tech manufacturing industries are faced with uncertain product demand, high capacity investment cost, and rapid technology advancement. Also the notable business cycle often makes the demand and supply imbalance, thus increasing the operating risk. And the imbalance of supply and demand is one of the main factors that influences the manufacturer’s profit. However the uncertain demand is the factor that can't be controlled, therefore the controllable supply become the key to profit. Hence, the capacity investment decision of the firm will determine its profitability and long term competitiveness.
Most capacity investment problems study the timing and sizing of capacity. Timing strategies decide when to build capacity and its decision variable is the “time”. And the sizing strategies decide how much capacity to build, the decision variables is “volume”. To time, or to size, that is the research question of this thesis. This study proposes a fair comparison method to comprehend the performance and behavior of the two capacity strategies. There are many uncertainties of semiconductor manufacturing industry, such as demand and technology. This study focuses on the effect of the demand variation upon the choice of capacity planning methods. Results obtained in this study are the timing model has a better performance in highly uncertain environment, and it is a more active capacity investment strategy rather than sizing model is a more conservative one. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-08T06:57:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-98-R95546031-1.pdf: 862966 bytes, checksum: ccb8fdf9dfaf9f2acb9fe12d1b93b9e1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 目錄
摘要 I Abstract II 圖目錄 IV 表目錄 V 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 問題背景 1 1.2 問題描述 3 1.3 研究目的 4 1.4 論文架構 4 第二章 文獻回顧 5 2.1 高科技產業產能規劃 5 2.2 半導體製造廠商擴產行為 9 2.3 幾何布朗運動需求模型 11 2.4 產能規模決策模型 14 2.5 產能就緒時點決策模型 14 2.6 最適停止方法應用於產能投資時點決策問題 16 第三章 產能規劃典型方法與比較程序 26 3.1 產能規模決策典型方法 26 3.2 產能就緒時點決策典型方法 26 3.3 產能規劃的模擬 27 3.4 產能規劃與比較程序 28 3.5 模擬數值範例 32 3.6 需求變異程度對產能規劃之影響 34 第四章 不確定需求對於產能規劃之影響 43 4.1 模擬情境設定 43 4.2 模擬結果-「利潤」的分析 53 4.3 模擬結果-「未被滿足之需求」的分析 56 4.4 產能規模決策與產能就緒時點決策的績效差異檢定 60 4.5 參數a、r、c之敏感度分析 64 第五章 結論與建議 68 5.1 研究結論 68 5.2 未來研究建議 69 參考文獻 70 | |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
dc.title | 產能投資時點與投資規模方法之比較研究 | zh_TW |
dc.title | A Comparative Study on Timing and Sizing Models of Capacity Investment | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 97-2 | |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 吳政鴻,楊烽正 | |
dc.subject.keyword | 產能規劃,時點,規模,半導體製造, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | capacity planning,timing,sizing,semiconductor manufacturing, | en |
dc.relation.page | 71 | |
dc.rights.note | 未授權 | |
dc.date.accepted | 2009-07-15 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 工學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 工業工程學研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 工業工程學研究所 |
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