產業標準化競爭過程之研究: 次時代光儲存媒體產業主流技術之爭為例

Abstract

在過去二十年技術變動快速的步伐下，在許多主流技術主導權的爭奪戰顯現出規格標準化對一個產業以及廠商長期競爭優勢的重要性。自1997 推出以來，DVD在數位影音市場獲得空前的勝利，很快的取代了VHS成為家用錄像和播放標準，同時也成為資訊產業中主要的存儲媒體。隨著普及率趨於飽和, 市場成熟, 毛利率因而逐步下降,加上高畫質娛樂媒體HDTV和數位時代來臨對於高容量的數據儲存需求， 使得高畫質媒體儲存光碟規格的標準成為廠商目光的焦點。為此以SONY為首所領導的BD (Blu-ray Disc) 與Toshiba為首的領軍的HD-DVD (High-Definition Digital Videodisc) 兩大陣營， 為了爭取次時代規格的主導權而展開了劇烈的競爭。 本研究主要探討在此兩項相似但是不相容的技術之爭下, 廠商策略, 產業結構, 及環境因素將會如何影響次時代儲存產業標準規格發展與技術普及。本研究的問題為: 1) 過去VHS家用錄像 和DVD產業標準規格的發展過程對如今高畫質儲存光碟規格的主流技術主導權爭奪戰有何影響和啟發? 2) 在此主流技術主導權爭奪戰中, 兩營主要策略是什麼? 3)在此主流技術主導權爭奪戰中, 主要決定因素有哪些? 4) 未來五年高畫質媒體儲存光碟產業將會有可能如何發展 ? 本研究採用定性研究的方式, 透過訪談以及產業次級資料, 歸納出整個產業的競爭動態, 並且利用標準化理論和主流設計理論,歸納出主流規格產生的過程及關鍵因素.最後運用情境分析法, 結合專家的意見探討影響未來光儲存產業規格發展的關鍵因素, 以及驅動此關鍵決策因素力量的不確定性與衝擊程度, 導出五種可能之情境結果, 進而發展最樂觀, 悲觀與最可能情境.透過本研究的分析發現, Blu-ray以較先進的儲存空間和防拷保護技術以及聯盟策略擊敗了HD DVD 在成本上和削價策略上的優勢, 獲得了較多硬體廠商,內容業者發行影片商, 與通路零售及影片出租商的支持,目前占領優勢而將在2009年成為次世代DVD 的市場主流.

Throughout the rapid pace of technological change in the last two decades, many occurrences of battles for dominance between two or more rival technologies have highlighted the importance of standardization for industry success and firms’ long term competitive position. Following its 1997 debut, the DVD (digital versatile disc, or digital video disc) had conquered the home-video market previously ruled by VHS tapes, as well as became the major storage medium choice in computer industry. However, in the digital information age, the needs for massive storage capacity for large information data, and high definition entertainment usage are becoming inevitable trends. In response, two format, Blu-ray Disc technology lead by Sony, and HD DVD lead by Toshiba, emerged in the market competing to become the successor of standard DVD. This research focus on how firm strategy, industrial structure and environment factor are going to affect the standards war out come and industry development. The four major focuses are: 1) What are the lessons and implications of standardization process in the VCR and DVD industry to current format war? 2)What are the strategy maneuvers of each format as the standard war proceed? 3) What are the major determinant factors of dominant design of high definition DVD? 4) What are the best, worst and most possible scenarios and why? This study use qualitative research method, mainly based on the primary sources of interviews and questionnaires, secondary data, theoretical frameworks for standardization and dominance design are used to analyze the dominant factors and strategies practices throughout the dominance process. Lastly, based on the expert opinion on the importance and uncertainties of dominance factors, the study comes out with 4 scenarios. The paper concludes that at current status quo, Blu-ray disc’s advancement in technology, copyright management, and strategic alliance efforts give it more competitive position than HD DVD’s low cost and penetration pricing strategies, in attracting more industry supporters, including content providers, PC and consumer industry manufacturers and distribution channels to become the dominant design of next generation DVD in year 2009.