信用保證機構之承保方式與風險管理

Abstract

中小企業信用保證基金(以下簡稱信保基金)成立已三十年，是提供信用保證的非營利機構。信保基金一直以授權及專案的方式提供信用保證，惟這兩種承保方式的風險管理成效尚乏客觀的分析。本研究嘗試分析信保基金面臨雙重資訊不對稱的問題，並探討兼顧達成政策任務及風險管理之承保方式。 本研究之實證部分以民國89年1月至94年2月計62筆月資料，進行新發生逾期率成對樣本的t檢定。檢定結果顯示，在特定情況下，專案審查之風險管理成效優於授權保證。 本研究結論有三：一為信保基金之代償率上限設定宜參考經濟景氣之變動、銀行一般水準之貸款損失率及信保基金損益平衡之代償率等指標。二為批次保證為控制風險總量的一種不錯的承保方式。三為改良式批次保證、滾動式批次保證及直接保證是信保基金可兼顧各方利益及控制風險的承保方式組合。

Small and Medium Business Credit Guarantee Fund (SMEG) is the sole non-profit credit guarantee providing organization. In the past thirty years it has successfully supported numerous small and medium enterprise to obtain needed bank loans. The co-existence of authorized Credit Guarantee and review-needed Credit Guarantee approaches make it possible of double-layer information asymmetry faces to SMEG. However, relative effectiveness of these two schemes has not been analyzed yet. This study tries to analyze current risk management applied in SMEG. Also, a suggestion to current schemes based on risk control improving is provided in this study. 62 monthly and paired data and t-statistic testing are used in the empirical testing part of this study. Test results show that ,under specific conditions, review-needed scheme is significantly superior to the authorized scheme. Three conclusions are drawn in this study. First, subrogation ratio of SMEG should be set in accordance with the variation of the economy and with its break-even subrogation ratio. Second, package guarantee scheme is featured to include total risk-controlled volume consideration, yet a modified rollover package credit guarantee program is introduced and recommended to use by SMEG. Third, applying of a combination of credit guarantee schemes may be a better method to keep risk level down for SMEG.