損益平穩化與盈餘資訊內涵之關聯

Abstract

本文旨在探討損益平穩化對盈餘資訊內涵的影響，以及經平穩的損益是否影響投資人所獲得之未來盈餘、現金流量資訊多寡。在實證模型方面，本文參照Tucker and Zarowin（2006）之研究方法進行台灣市場之研究。損益平穩化程度係以裁量性應計數變動與裁量前淨利變動之Pearson相關係數來衡量，並以Collins et al.（1994）衡量盈餘與股票報酬關係的迴歸模型為基礎，加入損益平穩化變數後，進行實證分析。 實證結果顯示，公司管理當局損益平穩化的行為使當期盈餘之迴歸係數變小，代表投資人認為盈餘中含有許多不具價值攸關性的雜訊，該盈餘數字未能允當反映公司之經營成果，盈餘的資訊內涵減損；而在投資人所獲得之未來盈餘、現金流量資訊方面，損益平穩化並不影響當期股價變動中所含未來盈餘、現金流量資訊的多寡，顯示投資人仍可自其他資訊來源獲得相關資訊，不受管理當局損益平穩化行為的干擾。在考量了公司的規模、成長性、風險程度、市場上私有資訊搜尋活動與審計品質等可能影響實證結果的因素後，仍可得到相同的結論。

The purpose of this study is to explore whether income smoothing affects the information content of earnings and the informativeness of past and current earnings about future earnings and cash flows. The method mentioned in Tucker and Zarowin (2006) is mainly taken in this study to approach the research. Income smoothing is measured by the negative correlation of a firm’s change in discretionary accruals with its change in pre-discretionary earnings, and the primary model is based on the approach used by Collins et al. (1994). The empirical result obtained in this study has showed that income smoothing decreases the coefficient on current earnings. This implies that smoothed income is not considered to be an appropriate measure of firm performance. Hence, income smoothing has a negative impact on the information content of earnings. However, income smoothing does not affect the information about future earnings and cash flows impounded in the current stock returns. This result is robust to controlling for firm size, growth, future earnings volatility, risk, private information search activities and audit quality.