亞太地區經濟整合之研究

Abstract

面對全球市場的劇烈競爭，區域經濟整合業已成為當前全球經貿的核心議題。在這兩千年歐盟正式啟用歐元後，揭開一連串區域經濟整合的風潮序幕，亞太地區自然不能置身事外，目前亞太最主要的區域經濟組織東協(ASEAN)，在中日韓的相繼加入下，對世界貿易的影響更顯重要。本文針對全球四十二個國家，七個區域經濟組織之間相互貿易的長期趨勢，利用「引力模型」以1997年到2004年共八年時間的貿易與相關經濟資料，來研究東南亞國協貿易密集關係。主要實證結果如下：(1)東協國家之間的貿易區塊已經形成，且根據迴歸分析，係數有逐年上升，顯示東協之間的貿易流量逐年上升。(2) 距離、人口、國內生產毛額、政治穩定度等因素，確實影響貿易流量。 有鑒於東協貿易區塊儼然成形，大陸與東協自由貿易區乃至於「東協十加三」對台灣的影響十分重大，在本文最後就避免國內經濟發展邊陲化的方面，提供政策上的建議。

In the face of fierce global market competition, regional economic consolidation has already become the main topic of discussion concerning current global economics and trade. The adoption of the Euro by the European Union in 1999 brought about a succession of regional economic consolidation. The Asian and Pacific areas, naturally have been unable to remain unaffected. With the continuous involvement of China, Japan and Korea, the Association of South East Asian Nations is having a greater affect on world trade. This paper uses the “Attraction Model” together with eight years of trade and economic data from 1997 to 2004 to look at the long term trend of trade between 42 countries and 7 regional economic organizations. An investigation is made of the close relationship between South East Asian countries regards trade cooperation. The main conclusions made from the empirical analysis are as follows: (1) Trade blocks (groups of countries) have already formed. According to our regression analysis, we find there are increasing numbers of blocks formed each year, which shows that trade volume is increasing each year between ASEAN countries.(2) It was found that distance between countries, population, gross national product and a country’s political stability all have an influence on a country’s trade volume. With the formation of ASEAN trade blocks; China and the ASEAN Free Trade Area(AFTA) and even the ASEAN Plus Three(APT) are all having an extremely significant impact on Taiwan. This paper avoids looking at the domestic economies of ASEAN countries but rather looks at inter border trade between these countries. Finally some recommendations are made about policy.