以婦女婚育與就業調查資料探討台灣已婚婦女生育與人口學相關因素

Abstract

台灣地區生育率逐年下降，使得人口老化問題日趨嚴重，而人口老化對國家影響層面深遠，如何提振生育、改善老化現象是目前政府關心的焦點。本研究利用台灣地區婦女婚育與就業調查資料。選取資料中已婚三年以上之婦女為樣本，擷取資料中人口學變項，如：婦女年齡、初婚年齡、教育程度、丈夫教育程度及居住地區，以羅吉斯回歸探討台灣地區人口學因素與已婚婦女在婚後三年內是否生育的相關性。 由相關分析針對不同年份之不同人口學變項與已婚婦女婚後三年內生育機率相關性的探討，本研究結果顯示初婚年齡在所有年份的資料中與已婚婦女在婚後三年內生育有顯著的相關性，初婚年齡越晚在婚後三年內之生育機率越低。2000年、2003年與2006年調查資料中，除前述之初婚年齡分層有顯著相關之外，年齡分層與婚後三年內生育有顯著相關，年齡分層越高者，在婚後三年內之生育機率越低；年齡分層的顯著代表各世代間生育行為的改變。2000年、2003年調查資料中，丈夫教育程度與居住地區部份變項與婚後三年內生育相關，教育程度越高及居住地區為都市化地區者，其婚後三年內之生育機率越低。2003年與2006年調查資料中，與婚後三年內之生育機率相關之變項為婦女教育程度，教育程度越高者，其婚後三年內之生育機率越低。

In recent years, the fertility rate continues to decline in Taiwan and the population of Taiwan is aging faster, which causes various problems in many aspects. How to raise fertility rate and improve the aging population is the main concerned issue of the government. This study uses the data from Survey of Marriage、Fertility and Employment of Women in Taiwan and chooses women who had married for least three years to probe correlated demographic factors for birth behaviors, such as women’s age, first married age, education level and their spouse’s education level, urbanization level of the areas they live. Analysis method is logistic regression. The probabilities of women giving birth in three years after marriage are studies through the association analysis with different demographic factors in different years. Our result shows that the woman’s first marriage age has a significant effect on birth behavior for different year’s survey data. There are significant differences in 2000, 2003 and 2006-survey data for cohort effect. Cohort effect represents change of birth behavior pattern In 2000, 2003-survey data, spouse’s education level effect and region of residence are significant factors. Higher the education level is lower the probability of birth is in three years and regional difference represents living cost that may affect the delay of birth behavior. In 2003 and 2006-survey data, the birth behavior has the same pattern for education level of women.