價格敏感度異質性與動態性對定價策略之影響

Abstract

中文摘要 最適價格策略的制定一直以來都是廠商在制定行銷策略的時候最為難以決定的一個部分，利用現有的定價方式像是成本定價或是競爭定價等等，只能反應企業競爭環境對於利潤的影響，但是影響價格的最主要原因應該是消費者本身對於產品的價格敏感度或是品牌之間的交叉價格敏感度，也是因為價格敏感度導致銷量產生改變。 本研究首先探討廠商的定價策略，以及其策略如何改變市場上的價格結構以及價格敏感度。廠商會以消費者的需求設定為價格上限，成本為價格下限，其中的調整過程就藉由價格彈性來調整，同時也會影響廠商的定價。 根據Dickson(1992)「理性的競爭理論」，所提出一個廠商與消費者的互動關係模型，並以動態迴歸模型說明消費者價格敏感度呈現時間動態變化，並且探討任立中(2002)所建構的動態定價策略與消費者價格敏感度循環模型，在超級市場的牛奶品項中是否成立。 在模型的運用上，本研究採取GLS的估計方法來估計動態價格敏感度，以及SUR模型來估計不同店家的價格敏感度，最後本研究發現消費者除了在會隨時間變化其價格敏感度之外，在同一區域不同店家型態的消費者價格敏感度也全部相同，同時也發現當廠商調整價格之後，消費者的價格敏感度也隨之變動，符合了Dickson的動態競爭理論，證明市場是處於一個不均衡的狀態。 但對於廠商而言卻沒有跟隨消費者的價格敏感度變化調整其定價策略，所以為了有效分辨消費者的消費型態，價格彈性應做為以後廠商在做定價策略以及後續行銷策略之參考，有利於執行差別取價、降價幅度以及選擇降價的品牌等。 關鍵字: 動態定價策略、SUR模型、異質性

Abstract The main idea of this thesis is to build SUR regression model and Dynamic regression model to analyze consumer price sensitivity by using the milk data from a supermarket in Taiwan. At first, examine the Dickson’s competitive rationality theory. Second, understand the relationship between pricing strategy and consumer price sensitivity. According to the issue mentioned above, this thesis first analyzes the retailer’s pricing strategy and how to change the price structure and consumer’s price sensitivity. Retailer should make their strategy by consumer’s price sensitivity rather than simply on cost. Besides, the change of absolute price would affect the change of market share and performs time-varying model. On the basis of Dickson’s competitive rationality theory, this thesis affords a dynamic interaction between supply and demand. Which means the relationship between retailers’s pricing strategy and consumer’s reaction. Through the dynamic regression model, this thesis tries to understand the price elasticity changing and to prove the dynamic changes of consumer’s elasticity. Finally, this thesis found that the price elasticity would change with time. The consumer’s price elasticity change when retailers change their price strategy. But when the price elasticity changes, it will not affect retailer’s strategy. Besides, through SUR regression model we know that different customers have different price sensitivity. Successful retailers should figure out the change of purchasing behavior and to recognize the nature of the market. The price elasticity could be the foundation for retailers to make their pricing strategy. And other marketing strategy could take price elasticity into concern. For example, price discrimination strategy , brand choosing ,channel distribution etc. Key words : Dynamic pricing strategy、SUR model、heterogeneity