實施打房措施對上市櫃建築投資公司股價之影響

Abstract

房價不斷攀升，為防止房市泡沫化、平抑房價，政府各相關單位紛紛祭出打房措施。本研究利用事件研究法探討課徵奢侈稅、復徵空地稅及中央銀行各項打房措施消息公布之際，上市、櫃建築投資公司是否產生負的累積異常報酬率，並利用迴歸模型，探討課徵奢侈稅、復徵空地稅及中央銀行各項打房措施此三大類打房措施所帶來之累積異常報酬率，與企業特性之關聯性。 研究結果發現： 一、 市場大多預期打房措施將使房市受到負面衝擊，股票市場也反映此一可能利空消息，故在各項打房措施消息公布時，上市、上櫃建築投資公司普遍均有顯著的負向股票異常報酬率。其中，租稅打房政策造成的影響普遍較中央銀行實施之打房措施大。 二、 與企業特性關聯性之迴歸結果如下： 1. 課徵奢侈稅相關消息發布之事件期間，存貨比率較高、公司規模較大之上市、上櫃建築投資公司，其累積異常報酬率較低。 2. 復徵空地稅相關消息發布之事件期間，存貨土地占總資產比率較高、存貨房地占總資產比率較高之上市、上櫃建築投資公司，其累積異常報酬率較低；市值淨值比較高之上市、上櫃建築投資公司，其累積異常報酬率較高。 3. 中央銀行打房措施相關消息發布之事件期間，存貨比率較高、公司規模較大之建築投資公司，其累積異常報酬率較低；市值淨值比較高之上市、上櫃建築投資公司，其累積異常報酬率較高。

In order to curb the housing price hike and prevent housing bubble, the government developed a lot of policies. Generally speaking, those policies were predicted to have negative impacts on stock market. Using event study method, this study examines the stock market reactions to the announcements of those policies that blast real estate speculation. This study chooses thirteen event days and classifies them into three categories: luxury tax, vacant land tax and policies proposed by Taiwan’s central bank. Finally, this study explores the relation between the stock cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) of those three categories and firm characteristics separately. This study finds that the stock market reacts negatively when the news of luxury tax policy, vacant land tax policy and policies proposed by Taiwan’s central bank are released. However, the impact of policies proposed by Taiwan’s central bank is less significant than the impact of tax policy. It suggests the tax policy was regarded as a more effective measure to curb property speculation. The regression results indicate: (1) When the news of luxury tax policy are released, for construction companies, CAR is negatively related with inventory-to-total assets ratio and corporate size. (2) When the news of vacant land tax policy are released, for construction companies, CAR is negatively related with land-to-total assets ratio and other inventory-to-total assets ratio, and positively related with market-to-book ratio. (3)When policies proposed by Taiwan’s central bank are released, for construction companies, CAR is negatively related with inventory-to-total assets ratio and corporate size, and positively related with market-to-book ratio.