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http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/23487
標題: | 賽局理論應用於永續性水質管理之研究 Study on Application of Game Theory to Sustainable Water Quality Management |
作者: | Jung-Hsuan Tsao 曹榮軒 |
指導教授: | 童慶斌(Ching-Pin Tung) |
關鍵字: | 永續性,賽局理論,排污權交易,流域共治,時段差別價位設計, Sustainability,Game Theory,Discharge Permit Trading,Watershed Cohabitation,Time Pricing Control, |
出版年 : | 2010 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 永續流域水質管理可分為空間尺度與時間尺度的問題,本研究以賽局理論(Game Theory)一以貫之,運用不同類型之賽局理論於現實層面之政策管理機制,以達成流域水質永續管理為目標,期盼透過現代科學之理性決策與政策機制的訂定,確保流域永續發展之效果。在空間上的永續性部份,本研究利用賽局理論中之靜態賽局分析我國現行之水污染管制政策,在沒有總量管制以及徵收水污染排放費的情形下,單以放流水標準管制的方式容易使得流域全體落入囚犯困境(Prisoners’ Dilemma)之中,無法讓整體社會達到最佳化之福利報酬,透過污染權排放交易市場的建立以及水污染防治費的徵收等經濟誘因管制手段,可以解決現今面臨的問題,另外,透過重複賽局的理論,闡述流域共治實為有效率之管理政策。在時間上的永續性部份,本研究針對台灣地區河川流量豐枯差異過大的情形,提出時段差別價位設計機制,利用動態賽局中史塔克博格賽局(Stackelberg Game)模型設計不同季節之最適水污染排放費,在不超過環境承載力的前提下,確保在不同時期的環境涵容能力皆能達到最有效率之利用。 Sustainable watershed water quality management has both spatial and temporal issues. This study applies different types of Game Theory to the two issues in developing management policies to achieve the goal of sustainable development. In the spatial issues, this study uses the static game to analyze the current policy of water pollutant discharge control. Results indicate that current management measure without considering the total mass control and the effluent charge would be easy to fall into the Prisoners’ Dilemma, and let the entire society can not reach the optimal payoff. This problem would be solved by the establishment of discharge permit trading market and the water pollutant levy. In addition, the repeated Game Theory would proof the river cohabitation is an effective management policy. In the temporal issues, this study proposes applying Time Pricing Control to deal with the unstable stream flow which may have different carrying capacity in Taiwan. The Time Pricing Control is based on the Stackelberg Game model in dynamic Games Theory. The measure of Time Pricing Control can not only keep pollutant discharges from exceeding environmental carrying capacity, but also effectively use the carrying capacity in different seasons. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/23487 |
全文授權: | 未授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 生物環境系統工程學系 |
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