中國石油外交之研究(1978~2010) －新現實主義與新自由主義的觀點

Abstract

1978年中國實施改革開放政策，經濟成長一日千里，對於石油的需求與日俱增，為此中國積極運用石油外交戰略，確保石油供應安全，達到維護國家生存與發展的重要目標。本文採取質性歷史研究法與文獻分析法，透過新現實主義與新自由主義兩項研究途徑，深入探討中國是否因為國際政治與經濟情勢的差異，採取不同的外交戰略模式？本文企圖建構理論與實務的對話平台，勾勒中國石油外交的未來展望。 中國在全球進行石油外交布局的過程面臨諸多挑戰：與石油消耗國產生衝突、與產油國交往引發爭議、海上石油運輸通路遭受安全威脅、以及「中國石油威脅論」的國際效應。為突破石油外交困境，中國加強「走出去」戰略，提高藍水海軍作戰實力，具有新現實主義的理論特色；而中國積極參與國際能源織，建立石油外交合作關係，符合新自由主義強調的互賴精神。 本文研究發現，新現實主義是現階段主要的石油外交模式，但中國崛起後開始正面回應國際社會對於「負責任大國」的要求，透過合作、互賴的新自由主義基調推動石油外交。石油外交不但是中國突破西方國家圍堵、維繫中共政權的政策工具，同時也是影響東亞區域和平的重要關鍵。未來中國將逐漸由國際石油外交的「遊戲參與者」晉升為「規則制定者」，而石油外交帶來的競爭與衝突依然是中國領導人必須面對的嚴正課題。

Since 1978, China's policy of opening up to the outside world has resulted in rapid economic growth and increasing demand for oil. In order to ensure nation’s survival and continuing development, China institutionalized oil diplomacy to secure stakes in oil and gas fields abroad. This paper conducts a qualitative study of China’s oil diplomacy using both historical and document analysis approaches. The consistency of this stratagem is further dissected through Neo-realism and Neo-liberalism studies. The goal is to outline the future prospects of China’s oil diplomacy based on theories and facts. China's oil policy faces many challenges in the world: The conflict of interest and competition for oil with other countries, the security threat involved with oil logistics, and the “China energy threat” view shared by many overseas analysts. To solve these issues, China has strengthened the 'going out' strategy, led by the state to open up more oil import options. China has also increased naval forces capabilities to ensure the safety of oil transportation. These changes exhibit the characteristics of the Neo-realism theory. In addition, China has actively participated in numerous international energy and petroleum organizations, these diplomatic ties are in line with Neo-liberalism’s emphasis on the spirit of interdependence. This study found that China’s oil diplomacy is very versatile. Looking ahead, China's continuing efforts to be a “responsible world power” will show more cooperation and interdependence with the rest of the world. However, the inevitable conflict of interest and competition for oil will still be a major challenge for the Chinese leader.