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完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 謝德宗(Der-Tzon Hsieh) | |
dc.contributor.author | Yun-Chu Chen | en |
dc.contributor.author | 陳韻竹 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-08T04:28:12Z | - |
dc.date.copyright | 2010-02-11 | |
dc.date.issued | 2010 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2010-02-04 | |
dc.identifier.citation | 一、中文部份
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(1958), “The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957,”Economica, New Series, Vol. 25, No. 100, pp. 283-299 Quandt, R.E. (1960), “Tests of the Hypothesis that a Linear Regression System Obeys Two Separate Regimes,” Journal of the American Statistical Association. 55, pp. 324-30. Vuchelen, J. (2004), “Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts,” Journal of Economic Psychology, 25 (4), pp. 493-506. Welsch, H. (2007), “Macroeconomics and Life Satisfaction: Revisiting the 'Misery Index',” Journal of Applied Economics, 10(2), pp.237-251. Retrieved December 29, 2009, from Business Source Premier database. Williams, J. (2009), “ The Risk of Deflation, ” FRBSF Economic Letter, 2009(12), pp.1-3. Retrieved December 10, 2009, from Business Source Premier database. Wiseman, C. (1992), “More on misery: How consistent are alternative indices?” A comment. American Economist, 36(2), 85. Retrieved December 30, 2009, from Business Source Premier database. Yang, B. & Lester, D. (1992), “The misery index and an index of misery,” Atlantic Economic Journal, 20(3), 98. Retrieved December 30, 2009, from Business Source Premier database 三、網站部份 中央大學台灣經濟發展研究中心網站,http://rcted.ncu.edu.tw/,最後檢索日期:2010/1/10 中華民國統計資訊網,http://www.stat.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=4,最後檢索日期:2010/1/10 台灣經濟新報網址,http://www.tej.com.tw/twsite/,最後檢索日期:2010/1/2 行政院主計處網站,http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/,最後檢索日期:2009/12/31 行政院勞工委員會網站—「季節調整的失業率」, http://statdb.cla.gov.tw/statis/stmain.jsp?sys=210&kind=21&type=1&funid=q02077&rdm=9IivebWf/,最後檢索日期:2010/2/1 行政院經建會網站,http://www.cepd.gov.tw/,最後檢索日期:2009/12/31 美國痛苦指數網站,http://www.miseryindex.us/,最後檢索日期:2009/11/8 聯合新聞網,http://www.udn.gov.tw/,最後檢索日期:2009/11/8 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/22789 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 本研究旨在探討民生痛苦指數與金融痛苦指數的計算公式在實證上是否符合台灣國情,最後並提出台灣適用的痛苦指數修正公式。
依據國內外文獻對痛苦指數的評論與修正,首先以1990年第一季~ 2009年第二季的台灣資料分別檢驗民生痛苦指數、金融痛苦指數與國際重大事件是否有時間上的關聯性,其次再檢驗1999年第一季 ~ 2009年第二季的台灣失業率、通膨率,與股價指數變動率、間接匯率(的)變動率、經濟成長率之各種變數組合對台灣消費者信心指數的解釋力,以找出具有最佳解釋力的組合,並依此提出痛苦指數在台灣的修正式。 實證結果與分析如下: 一、綜合各結構性轉檢定結果來看,民生與金融痛苦指數對國際重大事件的發生幾無預測或解釋能力,因此痛苦指數的計算公式需要被修正以符合台灣民情。 二、提出台灣適用的痛苦指數修正式: 將台灣消費者信心指數作為人民福祉的代理變數,並以多元迴歸分析方法個別探討各種總體變數的組合對台灣消費者信心指數的解釋力,藉此找出具有最佳解釋力的變數組合,並獲致以下結果: (一)將失業率與通膨率拆成同一模型的兩自變數後再對消費者信心指數進行迴歸的估計結果比失業率與通膨率直接相加(即民生痛苦指數)後對消費者信心指數進行迴歸的估計結果更具有解釋能力;金融痛苦指數的實證結果亦然。亦即民生痛苦指數與金融痛苦指數的複合變數定義在台灣的實證檢驗結果不佳,需要修正。 (二)當失業率或通膨率降低,或股價指數變動率、間接匯率變動率、或經濟成長率上揚時,皆使台灣消費者信心指數提升,符合理論預期。 (三)綜合比較各模型迴歸估計結果可得: 1. 在台灣各總體變數中,失業率、通膨率與股價指數變動率對台灣消費者信心指數有顯著的影響。 2. 由所達之顯著水準可知,各變數對消費者信心指數的影響之顯著性大小依序為股價指數變動率與經濟成長率、通膨率、失業率,最後是間接匯率變動率。 3. 由迴歸係數估計值可知,失業率為所有變數當中對消費者信心指數影響幅度最大的變數,其次為通膨率,再其次為股價指數變動率。 4. 從迴歸最佳估計式的結果可得,失業率、通膨率與股價指數變動率的係數比大約為26:9:(-1)。亦即,失業率對消費者信心指數的影響幅度約為股價指數變動率對台灣消費者信心指數影響幅度的近26倍,通膨率對台灣消費者信心指數的影響幅度是股價指數變動率對台灣消費者信心指數的影響幅度的近9倍,而失業率對台灣消費者信心指數的影響幅度是通膨率影響幅度的近2.7倍。由此可知,民生痛苦指數的計算公式裡的失業率係數權重確實是被低估。 (四)依前述實證結果提出台灣適用的痛苦指數修正公式。最後,將此「修正版」痛苦指數再進行迴歸估計以及結構性轉變檢定兩種檢驗,並獲致結論如下:「修正版」痛苦指數對於台灣人民的經濟痛苦程度確實具有良好解釋能力。換言之,當「修正版」痛苦指數上升,將使台灣消費者信心指數降低,人民經濟痛苦程度愈大。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | This paper empirically investigated the applicability of the misery index and the financial definition of the misery index to Taiwan and finally proposed a revised equation of the misery index for Taiwan.
Based on the views and modifications of the misery index in previous literature, this paper used the data in Taiwan from 1990Q1 to 2009Q2 to first examine the correlation between the misery index and worldwide significant events as well as the correlation between the financial definition of the misery index and worldwide significant events, respectively. Later, this paper examined the explanatory power of various combinations of variables, including unemployment rate, inflation rate, the rate of change of stock indices, the rate of change of the indirect exchange rate, and economic growth rate for Taiwan’s Consumer Confidence Index (Taiwan’s CCI) from 1990Q1 to 2009Q2. By finding the combination of variables that best explains Taiwan’s CCI, this study attempted to revise the equation of the misery index for Taiwan. Empirical results and analyses are as follows: I. Through various tests of structural changes, this paper found that the misery index and the financial definition of the misery index cannot predict or explain the effects of worldwide significant events. Therefore, the equation of the misery index should be rectified according to practical conditions in Taiwan. II. Formulation of a modified equation of the misery index for Taiwan: This paper used Taiwan’s CCI as a proxy variable of well-being and applied multiple regression method to investigate the explanatory power of different combinations of variables associated with the misery index for Taiwan’s CCI to find the combination that best explains Taiwan’s CCI. The results are as follows: 1. The model with unemployment rate and inflation rate divided as two independent variables can better explain Taiwan’s CCI than the model with unemployment rate and inflation rate directly summed as one composite variable (i.e. misery index). The same conclusion was also observed in the test of the financial definition of the misery index. In other words, the composite variables used in the misery index and the financial definition of the misery index cannot adequately capture the misery in Taiwan in empirical validation and should be modified. 2. Decline in unemployment rate or inflation rate or any rise in the rate of change of stock indices, the rate of change of the indirect exchange rate, and economic growth can all lead to a rise of Taiwan’s CCI as theoretically expected. 3. Findings from model regression estimations include: (1) Among all macroeconomic variables, unemployment rate, inflation rate, and the rate of change of stock indices have significant effects on Taiwan’s CCI. (2) In terms of significance level, Taiwan’s CCI is most significantly influenced by the rate of change of stock indices and economic growth rate, followed by inflation rate, unemployment rate, the effects of the rate of change of the indirect exchange rate are least significant. (3) In terms of the magnitude of the regression coefficients, unemployment rate, among all the variables considered, has the largest magnitude of influence on Taiwan’s CCI. Inflation rate has the second largest magnitude, followed by the rate of change of stock indices. (4) According to the best estimator in regression, unemployment rate, inflation rate, and the rate of change of stock indices are in a ratio of approximately 26:9:(-1). In other words, unemployment rate is nearly 26 times more influential to Taiwan’s CCI than the rate of change of stock indices to Taiwan’s CCI; inflation rate is nearly 9 times more influential to Taiwan’s CCI than the rate of change of stock indices to Taiwan’s CCI; unemployment rate is nearly 2.7 times more influential to Taiwan’s CCI than inflation rate to Taiwan’s CCI; It can be inferred that the weight of unemployment in the misery index had been underestimated. 4. Based on the above empirical results, this study proposed a revised equation of the misery index for Taiwan. Finally, the “revised” misery index was validated through regression estimations and tests for structural changes to derive the following conclusion: The “revised” misery index indeed has a good explanatory power for the economic misery in Taiwan. In other words, the rise of the “revised” misery index will induce a significant decline in Taiwan’s CCI and a higher level of economic misery. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-08T04:28:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-99-P96341009-1.pdf: 1543116 bytes, checksum: 68c3c0e78e57007783c73b3ddcb82a2c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 口試委員會審定書……………………………………………………………...i
誌謝……………………………………………………………………………..ii 中文摘要……………………………………………………………………….iii 英文摘要………………………………………………………….…………….v 第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………………1 1.1 研究背景…………………………………………………………………1 1.2 研究動機…………………………………………………………………6 1.3 研究目的…………………………………………………………………7 1.4 研究流程…………………………………………………………………8 第二章 文獻探討……………………………………………………………….9 2.1 經濟因素與幸福的關聯性…………………………….…………………...9 2.2 痛苦指數的文獻…………………………………………………………..10 2.2.1 國外文獻…………………………………………………………...10 2.2.2 國內文獻…………………………………………………………...19 2.3 台灣消費者信心指數的文獻……………………………………………..20 2.3.1 台灣消費者信心指數的簡介……………………………………...20 2.3.2 與消費者信心指數有關的文獻…………………………………...21 2.3.2.1 國外文獻………………………………………………………21 2.3.2.2 國內文獻……………………………………………………...22 第三章 實證方法……………………………………………………………..25 3.1 結構式轉變檢定………………………………………………………….25 3.2 單根檢定………………………………………………………………….29 3.3 多元迴歸分析…………………………………………………………….30 第四章 實證結果與分析……………………………………………………..31 4.1民生痛苦指數與金融痛苦指數的檢驗…………………………………..31 4.1.1 資料來源與處理…………………………………………………..31 4.1.2 以結構性轉變檢定檢驗痛苦指數與國際事件的關聯性………..33 4.2 痛苦指數的修正………………………………………………………….38 4.2.1 資料來源與處理…………………………………………………..39 4.2.2 單根檢定結果……………………………………………………..42 4.2.3 相關性分析………………………………………………………..47 4.2.4 迴歸模型的建立…………………………………………………..50 4.2.5 迴歸結果分析……………………………………………………..54 4.2.6 提出痛苦指數的修正式…………………………………………..66 第五章 結論與建議…………………………………………………………..71 5.1結論………………………………………………………………………71 5.2 研究限制與建議…………………………………………………………74 參考文獻………………………………………………………………………75 附錄……………………………………………………………………………81 附錄一 消費者動向調查之各題調查問卷…………………………………81 附錄二 消費者信心指數之計算方式………………………………………82 附錄三 民生痛苦指數與金融痛苦指數計算公式的缺陷…………………83 附錄四 殘差檢定補充………………………………………………………86 | |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
dc.title | 台灣痛苦指數的檢驗與修正 | zh_TW |
dc.title | Empirical Validation and Revision of the Misery Index for Taiwan | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 98-1 | |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 唐代彪(Dai-Piao Tang),李顯峰(Hsien-Feng Lee) | |
dc.subject.keyword | 痛苦指數,民生痛苦指數,金融痛苦指數,結構性轉變,多元迴歸,台灣消費者信心指數,福祉,生活滿意度, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | misery index,financial definition of the misery indexs,structural change,multiple regression,Consumer Confidence Index (CCI),well-being,life satisfaction, | en |
dc.relation.page | 83 | |
dc.rights.note | 未授權 | |
dc.date.accepted | 2010-02-04 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 社會科學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 國家發展研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 國家發展研究所 |
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