台北都會區房地產價格上漲之關鍵因素探討

Abstract

台北都會區房地產市場自1989年的景氣高峰以來，歷經多年不景氣，並出現多次結構性變遷，之後房市在2003年開始出現緩步復甦，2006年起景氣愈趨熱絡，一直到2009年房價大幅上漲，房市景氣來到相對高峰。根據張金鶚、陳明吉、鄧筱蓉、楊智元(2009) 研究2008年台北市房價泡沫程度的資料顯示，所得與房價的成長幅度有相當大的落差，背後可能隱含著存在許多隱藏性收入。因此本研究藉由探究此波房價高漲背後的關鍵因素，試圖了解房價與所得成長幅度出現落差的真正原因。 事實上，房價高漲為一錯綜複雜的問題，其中涉及許多具關鍵影響的市場行為，而這些行為不容易直接從數據資料上判讀。因此本研究以深度專家訪談方式，從產官學界各方角度的專家意見中，歸納出此波房價高漲的關鍵因素。研究結果彙整出五項主要關鍵因素，分別是『資金行情』、『低利率』、『投資行為熱絡』、『稅制』、『預期心理與題材渲染』等。各關鍵因素的來由彼此相關，甚至互為因果，並在稅制結構性變遷的觸發下，使得許多國人存放海外的資金紛紛匯回台灣，加以各因素相互影響，一同引發此波房價的高漲，也因此造成房價與所得的成長幅度出現落差。

Taipei housing market had endured years of recession from last boom peak in 1989 and structural changes happened many times during depression. Then gradually recovering from 2003, housing market was booming again in 2006. Besides housing prosperity dramatically supported the climbing of house prices in 2009.According to a housing bubble research of Taipei in 2008 written by Chin-Oh Chang, Ming-Chi Chen, Hsiao-Jung Teng and Chih-Yuan Yang, there is a great gap between the growth of national income and of house price, which implicate many unexposed income in earning. So this thesis attempts to discover the reason of the great gap by figuring out the critical factors and impacts that boost house prices.

In fact, the climbing of house prices is a complicated multi-factors problem which involved many crucial market behaviors. Unfortunately those behaviors aren’t easily to be observed from numerical data. In order to tackle such an implicit issue, this thesis compiled experts’ opinions in different points of view including industry, academia and government by holding in-depth expert interviews. The result compiled five major, co-related and causal-related, critical factors which are “flood of funds”, “low interest rate”, “thriving housing investment”, “tax system”, and “expectation & information manipulation”. As tax system structural changes provoked lots of overseas funds to be remitted back to Taiwan and critical factors mutually interacted, housing prices were rapidly upsurging and the gap between national income and house prices expanded.