中國「營改增」下增值稅的省際分配:財政激勵與地區均衡

Abstract

1994年中國推行分稅制改革時，一方面考慮到地方的改革阻力強大，另一方面考慮到與當時的經濟水平和產業結構相協調，於是中央和地方政府妥協而生出增值稅和營業稅並行的「二元稅制」。隨著二十多年來中國經濟崛起，產業結構升級調整，營業稅稅制背後的全額徵稅原理不但加重了業者的稅收負擔，阻礙了第三產業的發展，而且不合理的徵稅安排使得國家稅收利益嚴重流失。在這背景之下，在原營業稅的徵稅範圍以增值稅取而代之的呼聲漸高，終於在2012年開啟了「營改增」試點，自此營業稅逐步退出歷史舞台，兩稅「合流」為增值稅。 增值稅作為中國的第一大流轉稅，其稅收規模效應決定其稅收分配制度設計的重要性。本文聚焦增值稅的稅收利益在中央和各省級地區之間的分配，從理論角度和現實角度對增值稅的分配進行制度分析和實證分析。在制度分析層面，本文將兼顧增值稅的縱向分配和橫向分配兩個維度，分為增值稅央地分成比例、中央對地方的增值稅返還、增值稅的省際橫向轉移，考察增值稅的分配制度自1994年以來的變遷情況，總結出當前影響各地區的央地分配格局的主要因素為地方的產業結構差異。而在實證分析層面，本文統計「營改增」試點過程的地區和產業的時間序列資料，分析各地區經歷「營改增」後的損益情況，認為「營改增」的增值稅增量收入取決於地方的試點產業結構和規模。雖然「馬太效應」繼續存在，較發達地區在一定程度上佔據優勢，但只要欠發達地區合理引導和改善本地的產業結構，因地制宜，也能在發展經濟的同時增加政府的增值稅收入。

When China started the tax-sharing reform in 1994, on the one hand, it faced the strong resistance of local governments; On the other hand, it needed to coordinate with the level of economic development and industrial structure at that time. In the end, the central and local governments compromised and implemented value-added tax (value-added tax is abbreviated as VAT, same as below) and business tax (business tax is abbreviated as BT, same as below) system in parallel, called the dual-tax system. With the rise of China's economy and the adjustment of industrial structure over the past 20 years, the principle of full taxation behind the business tax system not only aggravates the tax burden of the industry, but also hinders the development of the service sector, and the unreasonable taxation arrangement causes the local government to lose substantial revenue. In this context, the central government has been pressed to replace the BT by VAT. Finally, in 2012, China launched the pilot program of “BT to VAT Reform”. Since then, the central government has gradually withdrawn BT from the historical stage, and merged the two taxes into VAT. As the first large circulation tax in China, the tax scale of the VAT dooms the importance of the its tax distribution system design. This thesis focuses on the distribution of tax income of VAT between the central and provincial regions, and conducts institutional analysis and empirical analysis of the distribution of value-added tax from a theoretical and practical perspective. In terms of institutional analysis, this thesis takes into account the vertical distribution and horizontal distribution of VAT, which are divided into three parts: the share ratio of VAT between the central and provincial governments, the central -to-local VAT return, and the inter-provincial horizontal transfer of VAT. This thesis also finds that the main factors affecting the distribution pattern is the difference of industrial structure among all the regions. In terms of empirical analysis, this thesis collects the time series data of the regions and industries through pilot process of BT to VAT reform, and analyzes the profit and loss situation after the “BT to VAT reform” in each region, and finds that the VAT incremental income depends on the structure and scale of the local pilot industry. Although the 'Matthew effect' continues, i.e., the more developed regions have an advantage to a certain extent. However, as long as the government in the less developed regions can guide and improve the local industrial structure reasonably and adapt to local conditions, and thus can increase the government's VAT income while developing the economy.