改革、新建或退群: 美國作為支配性強權的多邊制度戰略分析 (2001-2020)

Abstract

二戰後，國際體系運作主要奠基於美國建立及主導的自由國際秩序(Liberal International Order, LIO)，其中，「多邊制度」可謂LIO的核心支柱，更常被認為是美國維持其體系支配性地位的重要工具。隨著中國快速崛起，過往文獻常認為成功的「權力移轉」與「秩序變動」皆會涉及體系內的軍事戰爭，而當代高度全球化及多邊互賴的體系中，「多邊制度」似成為支配性強權與崛起強權角力的核心場域。 本研究奠基於當代美國與中國之競合作為啟發，試圖探討美國作為支配性強權如何因應崛起中國於多邊制度的挑戰，並透過分析及探討美國在多邊制度的戰略選項及原因，進一步補充「霸權秩序論」所呼籲關注的「霸權與霸權秩序之互動關係」。 本研究分別就美國於二戰後主導及構建的政治領域-國際人權體系，以及經貿領域-多邊貿易體系進行分析與探討。本研究認為，美國最初皆秉持包容性思維，積極敦促中國參與國際建制運作，以使中共融入西方自由國際秩序，成為符合美國及世界利益的國際重要行為者。然而，中國在近二十年間，積極參與既有多邊體系且以不同策略與手段持續獲利，美國面對中國挑戰，認知到其所主導體系的「成本效益產生負面失衡」，包含「體系領導地位下降」與「多邊體系的制度紅利下降」，因而自小布希政府至川普政府，則分別採取「改革」、「新建」及「退出」的多邊制度戰略選項。然不論是「改革」、「新建」或是「退出」，皆是美國為了捍衛自身利益及國際體系支配性地位的戰略選擇。

The operation of contemporary international system is based on the Liberal International Order (LIO) established by the United States after Second World War. Multilateral Institutions, among other things, which the U.S. utilizes, are the core pillar of the operation of LIO. Multilateral Institution becomes a major arena for the competition between the dominant power and rising power in the era of globalization and multilateral interdependence. This research attempts to analyze how and why has the U.S. as a dominant power reacted in the face of the challenge by rising China in the Multilateral Institutions. This research is also in a bid to explore how would the hegemon interact with hegemonic order, which is an important topic issued by “Hegemonic Order Theory”. This paper is focused on two international issue-area. One is International Human Rights System under the political field; the other is Multilateral Trade System under the economic field. This paper asserts that the United States was proactive to incorporate China into the LIO in an attempt to transform China into a responsible global actor aligned with the interests of U.S. and the World. However, in the past two decades, China has been actively getting involved in the global regime and garnering benefits by different instruments and strategies. This situation has caused the decline of the systematic position and the institutional dividends of the U.S., so that the U.S. has adopted three different strategies, including Reform, Rebuild, or Withdraw, under the Bush, Obama and Trump administration, respectively, in order to safeguard the interests of the U.S. and its dominant status in the international system.