壽險資金於不動產投資與股價波動的關係-以事件研究法分析

Abstract

台灣近年經濟成長率持續低迷，但人身保險業持續蓬勃發展。保險密度從2008年的新台幣83,294元，持續增長到2018年的新台幣148,865元；保險滲透率從2008年的14.59%成長到2018年的19.75%。壽險業持有大量保費須妥善運用來獲得報酬，以支應公司營運費用及理賠支出。收入除了死差及費差外，最主要獲利來源為投資收益。其中不動產投資佔5.19%，佔總資金高達1.23兆，為投資標的中重要的一環。 本研究以事件研究法分析不動產投資跟金控股價波動關係；也應用不動產投資領域中常用的基地分析及區位分析，探討不動產標的物件的概況，試著解釋造成股價波動的原因。以國內市占率前2大且公開發行的壽險業為研究對象，包含國泰人壽及富邦人壽。 針對國泰人壽部分：國泰金在事件研究期間的異常報酬大多不顯著。本研究認為，不動產投資雖為國泰人壽重大投資案，但國泰人壽為國泰金子公司之一，營業收益佔國泰金控比重為止53%；且107年國泰金總資產為9.2兆，目前最大不動產投資交易金額僅76億，所造成的影響有限。 針對富邦人壽部分，富邦金在事件研究期間的異常報酬大多不顯著。本研究認為，不動產投資雖為富邦人壽重大投資案，但富邦人壽為富邦金子公司之一，營業收益僅佔富邦金控比重為45%。僅歐元塔交易案有顯著異常報酬4天，顯著天數多於富邦人壽其他投資案，其他投資案所造成的影響有限。 綜上所述，儘管不動產投資為壽險業的主要投資管道之一，但透過本研究實證發現，商用不動產購入對於金控的股價表現影響程度低。

Life insurance plays an important role in Taiwan's society. Even though Taiwan's economic growth rate has been sluggish in recent years, the life insurance industry has been booming. The insurance density increased from NT$83,294 in 2008 to NT$148,865 in 2018. Insurance penetration rose from 14.59% in 2008 to 19.75% in 2018. Life insurance holds a large number of premiums. Therefore, life insurance corporate must be properly used premiums to obtain a return to support the company's operating expenses and claims expenses. In addition to Mortality margin, Interest margin and Expense margin, the main source of profit is an investment. Among them, the real estate investment accounts for 5.19%, accounting for NT$1.23 trillion of total investments. Real estate investment is an important part of the investment. This study analyzes the relationship between real estate investment and financial holding price fluctuation by event study. It also applies the location analysis commonly used in the field of real estate investment to discuss the general situation of real estate objects and try to explain the reasons for the stock price fluctuations. It takes the life insurance industry with the top two domestic market shares and public offerings as research objects, including Cathay life insurance and Fubon life insurance. In this study, the impact is limit although real estate investment is a major investment case of Cathay life, Cathay life is one of the Cathay financial holdings, and the operating income accounts for 53% of the Cathay financial holding. Cathay financial holding total assets of 9.2 million in 2018, the biggest real estate transaction amount is only 7.6 billion. For the part of Fubon life insurance: the abnormal return of Fubon financial holding is mostly not significant. The real estate investment is Fubon life's major investments, but one of Fubon life for Fubon financial holding, Fubon life operating income accounts for only 45% of the Fubon financial holding. Only the Euro tower deal has significant abnormal returns for four days, another deals’ impact is limit. To sum up, although real estate investment is one of the main investments for the life insurance industry, the empirical study shows that the purchase of commercial real estate has a low impact on the stock price performance of financial holding.