人口與勞動高齡化對生產力之影響：臺灣的事例

Abstract

台灣在1993年已進入高齡化社會，且根據國家發展委員會的推估，我國老年人口所占比例最快將於2018年超過14%，成為高齡社會。長期以來，人口老化一直都是國際間極度關心的議題。然而，高齡族群之於總體經濟究竟會引起何種影響，各方皆抱持著不同的看法。本文採用計量經濟之研究方法，探討台灣自1981年到2015年間，人口與勞動高齡化對生產力之影響。 實證結果發現，我國高齡勞動力對生產力有正向且顯著之影響，但撫養比則會造成負面的效果。其中，老年人口依賴率之負向效果顯著，而幼年人口依賴率的效果並不顯著。除此之外亦發現，醫療與長期照護政策的實施，有助於緩解人口老化所帶來的經濟疲弱問題。

Taiwan has already become an aging society in 1993. According to the estimation by National Development Council, the proportion of people over the age of 65 in our country will be more than 14% in 2018. In other words, Taiwan will become an aged society in the near future. The issues of population aging have been concerned for a long time. However, there are different kinds of viewpoint on the influence of population aging. This study employed the methods of econometrics to explore the influence of population and workforce aging on the productivity from 1981 to 2015 in Taiwan. Research results show that aged workforce has a positive influence, while the dependency ratio has a negative influence on the productivity in Taiwan. Among these, the influence from the old dependency ratio is significant but the influence from the youth dependency ratio is insignificant. Additionally, empirical research results also show that the policies of the health and long-term care are helpful for easing the declining problems of the economy, which caused by population aging.