企業併購動機及決策分析-以半導體供應商R公司為例

Abstract

台灣是高科技大國，是全世界晶圓廠最密集的國家，相關產業群聚效應明顯且強大，為維持獲利及持續降低成本，所以供應鏈本土化是目前各大晶圓廠的策略，這些策略也給予了台灣本土技術服務廠商極佳的發展空間。但是高科技業脈動速度快、產品生命週期不長，平均三年到五年產品會因競爭議價或被取代就沒有利潤，所以除了持續開發新產品或轉型，不然就是想辦法找尋合作或併購機會，希望藉由不同的技術服務產品整併，擴大公司規模增加競爭力及議價能力。 本研究個案是台灣半導體設備技術服務業典型的中小企業，當公司面臨併購這議題時要如何應對，本研究的核心主軸有兩個；一是透過自由現金流量折現法，讓未上市的個案公司估得自身的價值。另一個研究主軸是以科學量化的併購決策模式提供決策者一個決策參考。 一、公司價值評估 首先在公司價值評估方面，本研究使用工具是現金流量折現法，現金流量折現法的好處是充分考量企業過去及未來的現金流量，理論上比較接近公司實際操作上的價值，最後評估出的公司價值與實際跟公司經營者訪談中，估算出來的公司價值與他們自己認定的公司價值算是很接近了。 二、公司併購決策 本研究使用AHP工具來科學量化複雜的決策，參考許多業界評估準則及個案公司的意見訂定目標層級架構，再依決策團隊的目標屬性及權重等分配，計算及分析後得到最後量化分析的最佳方案。 併購是公司大事，尤其是被併購的公司大多會失去原本公司的主導地位，若併購結果不如預期，沒有併購產生的綜效，最後有可能被當作商品再賣出去或終止營運，本研究希望能建立一套科學量化的分析模式協助併購決策者以主觀判斷偏頗造成錯誤的決策。

Taiwan is a high-tech power. The cluster effect of relevant industries is both obvious and powerful. Localization of the supply chain is a major fab strategy to maintain profitability and reduce costs, but small and medium enterprises experience an average three-to-five-year technology refresh cycle; in addition to the continuous development of new products and cyclic transformation, the enterprise must seek additional cooperation or mergers and acquisitions opportunities, hoping to use different technical services for product consolidation and to expand the scale of the company to increase competitiveness and bargaining power. This study is of a typical small-medium sized enterprise of Taiwan’s semiconductor technology service industry. The company faces the issue of how to approach Mergers and Acquisitions, or M&A. There are two core spindles to this research: first, through Discounted Case Flow, or DCF analysis; for value estimation. A second research spindle is the Analytic Hierarchy Process, or AHP; a scientific decision-making model. 1. Valuation First is the valuation of the company. The tool used for this study is DCF analysis, which gives full consideration to past and future cash flow and is theoretically closer to the actual value of the company. 2. M&A Decision This study uses AHP tools to quantify complex decisions scientifically, referencing many industry assessment criteria and the case company’s opinions. Allocation and calculation of the final quantification analysis is based on the criteria and weighting of the decision-making team. M&A is a company event. If no synergies are generated by M&A , the merged companies could lose most of the original company’s dominant position. If the result is not as expected, the final company could be sold as a commodity or terminate its operations, the study hopes to establish a scientific model for quantitative analysis to help M&A decision makers avoid subjective judgment bias and the wrong decisions.