獲勝組合（Win-Set）在前置談判期的測量：以調查研究探索對兩岸政治談判的阻礙（2015-2019）

Abstract

本論文採用Robert Putnam的「獲勝組合」(win-set) 概念來探索對兩岸政治談判的阻礙，並用該概念作爲測量台灣民衆的統獨立場的新的分析工具。藉由針對大陸涉台專家的問卷調查以及針對台灣民衆的系列民意調查，本論文探討在2015年至2019年期間兩岸是否存在著能獲得各自國内多數支持的政治談判結果。筆者先檢視兩岸的win-set是否有重叠之處，或者雙方在接受率上比較接近的談判結果，再進一步探討以達成該談判結果為目標推動兩岸政治談判的跨兩岸或者台灣國内的聯盟（coalition）的形成之可能性。在分析潛在的聯盟的方法上，除了將兩岸的四個群組（大陸涉台專家與台灣的泛藍、泛綠和中立的選民）對趨於統一的談判結果的接受率加以比較，筆者也從民調中分析台灣民衆對兩岸政治談判的條件的態度，包括大陸所偏好的談判條件、談判雙方的適當身份和立法部門與民衆對談判的監督等條件。本研究的後部分由測量win-set的民調題目分析台灣民衆在統獨立場上的彈性程度，將民衆在統獨立場六方量表上的偏好與他們對趨於統一的談判結果的接受度加以比較。接著筆者特別分析民調受訪者的子總體，即在六方量表上偏向維持現狀或台灣獨立的受訪者，針對此子總體採用二元勝算對數模型，檢驗個體層次變數與受訪者接受趨於統一的談判結果是否有相關性。

This thesis uses Robert Putnam’s win-set concept as a framework for examining domestic constraints on cross-Strait political negotiation and as a new tool for measuring unification-independence preference among the Taiwanese public. Applying Putnam’s definition of the win-set as the set of negotiation outcomes that could be accepted by a majority of domestic constituents, the study identified a spectrum of political negotiation outcomes ranging from unification to independence. Recent questionnaire research of PRC experts, along with textual analysis of PRC expert commentary, and a series of Taiwanese public opinion surveys designed in part by the author (the Cross-Strait Political Negotiation Surveys, or CPNS) were analyzed to see if there was a negotiation outcome that might have received majority domestic approval on both sides in the period from 2015 to 2019. Potential for coalitions in favor of negotiation outcomes that overlapped in the two-sides’ win-sets, or came closest to overlap, were estimated based on congruence in acceptance rates for those outcomes among PRC experts and Taiwan’s major voting blocs. Coalition potential was further explored by examining Taiwanese attitudes toward cross-Strait political negotiation, including their views regarding approval of negotiation, Beijing’s desired preconditions for negotiation, the status of the negotiating entities, and legislative and popular oversight of negotiation. The latter part of this study examined the utility of the win-set as a measure of flexibility in Taiwanese unification-independence preferences. It used the CPNS Taiwan opinion poll data to compare respondents’ preferences on the traditional 6-point measure with their acceptance of negotiation outcomes on the win-set spectrum leading to unification. A subset of respondents who indicated preference for the status quo or independence but accepted negotiation outcomes leading to unification was identified. Binary logistic regression was performed on that subset to look for correlation between individual-level variables and whether or not respondents accepted political negotiation outcomes leading to unification.