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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 張倉榮 | |
| dc.contributor.author | Chun-Lung Chen | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 陳俊龍 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-08T02:59:37Z | - |
| dc.date.copyright | 2017-08-04 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2017 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2017-07-27 | |
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| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/20706 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 本研究使用概似不確定性估計法(Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, GLUE)配合中屯風力發電站即麥寮風力發電站資料進行日發電量不確定性以及月發電量不確定性之評估，並使用KS測試(Kolmogorov–Smirnov test)驗證其結果。在日發電量之不確定性方面，以此模式評估約有38%有過α=0.05之檢定，約56%有過α=0.01之檢定。在月發電量之不確定性部分，有通過α=0.05之檢定比例超過是90%，不同地點以相對誤差作為似然函數(likelihood function)通過α=0.05之檢定比例為58.33%，以NS效率係數(Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient) 作為似然函數則為83.33%。氣候變遷對東吉島之風力發電造成的影響會隨著氣候變遷的影響程度變嚴重，低發電量部分出現比現況更低發電量之機會提高，使得高發電量月份的不確定性提高。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | This study uses Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) to evaluate the wind power uncertainty on daily and monthly periods, and uses the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test (KS test) to verify the results. The test shows that about 38% data sets pass the KS test on daily uncertainty at α = 0.05, and about 55% at α = 0.01. In the case of monthly uncertainty, it is more than 90% data sets pass the KS test at α = 0.05. It is 58.33% passing the KS test at α = 0.05 by using the relative error as the likelihood function at different site. In contrast, it would be 83.33% by using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient as the likelihood function. Finally, this study uses GLUE to evaluate the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on wind power in Tungchitao. The results show that the lower the wind power tends to be, the higher the probability of incidence of low wind power impacted by climate change will be. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-08T02:59:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-106-D98622004-1.pdf: 2251976 bytes, checksum: 1f4e074f9a92f874f44db796c6321c06 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 摘要 I
ABSTRACT II 目錄 III 表目錄 V 圖目錄 VII 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 前言 1 1.2 文獻回顧 4 1.3 研究動機與目的 9 第二章 基礎理論 11 2.1 韋伯機率函數 11 2.2 發電量評估模式 12 2.3氣候變遷模式 14 2.4降尺度模式 16 第三章 不確定性分析方法 19 3.1風力發電之不確定因子 19 3.2 研究區域以及資料 21 3.3 不確定性評估模式 23 3.4 驗證方式 27 第四章 結果與討論 33 4.1日發電量之不確定性評估 33 4.2月發電量之不確定性評估 38 4.3氣候變遷之不確定性評估 40 第五章 結論及建議 67 5.1 結論 67 5.2 建議 68 參考文獻 70 簡歷與著作 77 附錄A 降尺度係數表 78 | |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
| dc.subject | 概似不確定性估計法 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 不確定性 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 風力發電量 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 氣候變遷 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation | en |
| dc.subject | Uncertainty | en |
| dc.subject | Climate Change | en |
| dc.subject | Wind Power | en |
| dc.title | 以概似不確定性估計法評估氣候變遷對台灣風能之影響 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | Evaluation of Impact of Climate Change on Wind Power in Taiwan by the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation Method | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 105-2 | |
| dc.description.degree | 博士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 鄭克聲,盧孟明,朱佳仁,吳毓庭 | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 不確定性,風力發電量,概似不確定性估計法,氣候變遷, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | Uncertainty,Wind Power,Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation,Climate Change, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 80 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU201702135 | |
| dc.rights.note | 未授權 | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2017-07-27 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 生物資源暨農學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 生物環境系統工程學研究所 | zh_TW |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 生物環境系統工程學系 | |
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