商譽連續減損與分析師目標價預測特性之關聯

Abstract

企業併購案被併企業及併購綜效的未來現金流量難以驗證特性，或許增加分 析師做定期減損測試進行商譽評價的挑戰。本文以商譽在兩年內連續減損達總資 產 10%公司為樣本，探究減損的提列與分析師目標價預測特性之關聯。 結果發現，公司在商譽連續減損後:(1)分析師目標價分歧程度顯著增加;(2) 分析師各投資期間過激預測顯著上升;分析師各季底之準確度顯著下降;額外平減 各公司波動度大小後，發現分析師各季之準確度顯著上升;(3)分析師各投資期間 與一年後之達成率增減未達統計顯著。 再者，作者依據目標價與股價，得知分析師與市場相對樂觀悲觀程度，結果 發現:(1)公司在商譽連續減損季末後三個月內，分析師目標價預測顯著高於預測 當時股價，即減損後，分析師相對於市場顯著樂觀;(2)經過一年後，目標價亦高 於一年後收盤價，即分析師在發布目標價當時，過度樂觀。

The uncertainty and difficulty to estimate the future cash flows generated by the acquired firm plus M & A synergy may increase security analysts’ challenge in pricing the goodwill. We examine the association between consecutive goodwill impairments and analysts target price properties. We compare test sample with substantial consecutive impairments and the control observations. We find that (1) analyst target price forecasts for the significant impairment sample are more diverse, overshoot more frequently and less accurate than those for the control firms. Adopting the annual EPS volatility as an alternative deflator for the forecasts, however, this study documents that for significant impairment firms, analyst target price forecasts are more accurate. Furthermore, we obtain insignificant results regarding the relationship between goodwill impairment and the hit rate of analyst prce forecasts. On the other hand, analyst price forecasts for firms with consecutive goodwill impairments appear to become more optimistic than the market and more optimistic than for the comparison firms.