氣候變遷與高齡化對台灣家庭電力消費之經濟影響分析

Abstract

全球暖化之下，台灣將面對海平面升高之危機，不僅會影響人們的生活型態，平均氣溫的上升也將改變台灣居民的能源需求，進而導致能源短缺之現象。近年來，由於全球暖化導致氣溫上升，民眾的冷卻需求增加亦造成電力需求隨之增加，導致台電之限電危機時有耳聞。除此之外，台灣尚面臨高齡化危機，高齡者逐漸增多，於2060年65歲以上人口估計將高達746萬人，而老年人口對於氣候變遷的適應能力下降，因此更需要空調設備調節，對於電力之需求會隨著暖化而增加。本研究旨在探討台灣面對全球暖化與高齡化之兩大問題時，家計部門電力需求之變化，以供未來電力政策之參考。 本研究採用1989年至2015年之月資料，以門檻迴歸之形式，搭配OLS及一般化動差法進行估計，比較估計結果，並檢定模型之門檻值、內生性、以及異質性問題。估計結果發現，模型之平均溫度存在3個門檻值，分別為23.642℃、25.622℃、27.035℃。其次，不論是OLS或是一般化動差法之結果，所得、溫度、老年人口及假日變數均與家計部門用電量呈現正相關，價格則為負相關。因此，本研究的實證結果可用來預測未來家計部門的電力需求成長，並協助制定相關調適策略。

Under the global warming, Taiwan will not just face the crisis of sea level rise. Global warming not only will affect people's life patterns, the average temperature rising will also change the energy demand of Taiwanese residents, leading to energy shortages. In recent years, due to global warming, the household demand for cooling also increased the demand for electricity, leading to power crisis which heard from time to time. In addition, Taiwan is still facing the aging crisis, the elderly gradually increased until 2060, over 65 years old population will be as high as 7.46 million. While the ability to adapt to climate change decline for the elderly population, they will need more regulation of air conditioning equipment, the demand for electricity will increase with the warming. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of global warming and aging society on residential electricity demand in Taiwan. In this study, we use the data from 1989 to 2015 to conduct the empirical estimation. We test the threshold value of temperature, endogeneity and heterogeneity of the model in the form of threshold regression, ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM). The results show that there are three thresholds value for the average temperature in our model, which are 23.642℃, 25.622℃ and 27.035℃, respectively. The results of this study also show that income, temperature, number of elderly and holiday have positive impact on electricity demand, while price effect is negative. The result of this study can serve as the basis to forecast future electricity demand and design adaptation strategies for the residential sector.