貝氏預測模型分析市場佔有率 - 以IT產業為例

Abstract

隨著科技進步，通路戰爭從實體通路延伸到虛擬線上通路，消費者可以接觸到的商品與選擇越來越多，標準也因此而提高，如何在競爭者環伺與消費者需求快速改變的情況下為企業搶攻市佔率，進而提高營收表現，是每個經理人最在意的事情，為了要達成這個目標，經理人需要用最有效率的方式配置手中有限的資源，除了了解自身企業的產品與優勢外，更重要的是即時察覺市場上其他競爭者的表現與不斷改變的競爭關係，但因為競爭者的資訊蒐集不易，時常造成數據的缺失或偏誤，這將導致經理人做出錯誤的決策，為此，本研究希望發展一套高度客製化、能即時且準確反映市場銷售變化的貝氏動態模型，使經理人可以透過輸入自己在意的變數，搭配來企業內部準確的資訊與外部不完整的競爭者資訊，即時察覺市場脈動和競爭態勢，並以此為依據，作出最適合的決策。 本研究採用W公司所提供的資料庫，以2014年到2016年共12季的個人電腦銷售數據作為研究數據，並根據資訊產業的特性，以個人電腦供應商、銷售地區、銷售通路三個變數做為分類依據，分別探討不同的個人電腦供應商在不同地區或不同通路的銷售數字，並結合關係矩陣，透過貝氏模型推估下一季的市佔率。

With technology advanced, commercial war on channel spreads not only physically but also virtually while customers get the sweet. Customers can easily more and more product so as to raise their standards to another level. How can a leader manage to gain profit in an environment filled with vicious competitor and fickle customer demands. In order to achieve this goal, manager should efficiently allocate resource. In addition to knowing their own products and advantages, manager should keep an eye on other competitor and the competitive environment. However, the gathering of the information is difficult task. This often lead to bad decisions from managers due to wrong numbers or data. In order to solve this problem, this research aims to develop a highly customized Bayesian Dynamic Model to track sale numbers in real-time and accurate basis. This model lets managers combine internal complete information and external incomplete competitor data and provide an instant review into market and competitive environment to help better the decision quality. This research adopt the data base from W Company, and take PC sales data from 2014 to 2016 as research number. This research takes computer suppliers, sale regions and sale channels to discuss interconnection between the variables, and create a relation matrix to predict market share in next season.