蔬菜價量關係之研究-以西螺、溪湖、臺北第一果菜批發市場為例

Abstract

國人在日常生活中對於蔬菜的消費需求逐漸增加，使得蔬菜價格的波動受到重視，因此，本研究以具有產地來源的西螺果菜批發市場為主要研究對象，檢視在批發市場中的蔬菜價量關係及雨量之影響性，並與鄰近的溪湖果菜批發市場、以及無產地背景的臺北第一果菜批發市場進行比較上述關係之差異性。 本研究之樣本資料為2008-2016年間五種蔬菜成交價、交易量以及當地降雨之日資料，檢視之蔬菜包括甘藍、小白菜、包心白菜、蕹菜與菠菜。透過線性複迴歸模型分析，本研究對批發市場的蔬菜的價量關係、雨量對各項蔬菜價格之影響性、以及蔬菜間之互補或替代關係等分析所得到之研究結果如下。首先，五種蔬菜各自的價量關係係數均為負值，確實符合需求理論。其次，蔬菜生長期若遇大雨，則影響其產量並進而影響其交易量。最後，依附產地與市場營運規模不同均會顯著影響蔬菜間的互補或替代關係。

As people in Taiwan demand for vegetables gradually in increase, the significant volatility of their prices attention. Therefore, the study analyzes the impact of trading quantities and rainfalls on prices of five vegetables in the Xiluo Fruit and Vegetable Wholesale Maret which is supported by production in local area. In addition, the study conduct further comparison of the effects mentioned above among the wholesale market in Xiluo,Shihu and Taipei City. The data covered in the study are the daily trading price, trading quantity, and rainfalls during the period 2008-2016. The vegetables under consideration are cabbage, pak choi,Chinese cabbage, water spinach and spinach. Through the methodology of linear multiple regression models, the price-quantity relationship, the impact of rainfalls, and the substitutive-or-supplementary relationship, the impact of rainfalls, the impact of rainfalls, and the substitutive-or-supplementary relationship among vegetables are investigated and the results are as follows. First, the own price-quantity coefficients are all negative and the finding confirms that the demand theory holds. Second, when it rain significantly during the production period, the supply quantity is down and it influences negatively on the prices. Finally, both the source of origin and the market vegetables in different three wholesale markets.