台灣人口結構轉變對房價的影響

Abstract

本論文主旨探討人口結構的改變是否會對台灣房地產市場有顯著的影響效果，人口結構的改變指低出生率及高齡化，衡量少子化最常用指標採用「一般生育率」，衡量人口老化最常用指標採用「扶老比」，及採用五個重要的經濟指標變數，包含家戶可支配所得、住宅存量、利率、失業率及女性勞動參與率進行實證分析。研究期間設定為1995年至2014年的台灣17個縣市作為研究樣本，運用共整合分析檢視房價與生育率，及房價與扶老比之間是否有長期的整合關係及相關性，並以向量誤差修正模型估計，以進一步了解兩者之短期與長期關係，及與其他經濟變數的影響效果。另以Granger因果關係檢定法了解各經濟變數與房價、生育率及扶老比之領先落後關係。

We examine whether the change in demographic structure will have a significant impact on the real estate market in Taiwan. Change in demographic structure refers to low fertility rate and aged. The most commonly used indicator for measuring low fertility rate is “general fertility rate”, and measuring the aged population is “dependency ratio”, and adopt five important economic indicator variables, including household disposable income, housing stock, interest rate, unemployment rate and female labor participation rate for empirical analysis. This paper investigates the housing prices in Taiwan using a sample of 17 cities from 1995 to 2014 during the study period. Whether there is a long run integration relationship and correlation between housing prices and fertility rate, dependency ratio. To further estimate the short run and long run relationship and the impact of other economic variables by vector error correction model. According to Granger Causality test, impulse-response between economic variables and housing prices, fertility rate, dependency ratio.