中國大陸經濟金融指標對台灣本國銀行大陸授信風險預警能力分析

Abstract

中國大陸經濟成長率自2010年第一季開始逐漸下滑，國內外研究單位與經濟學者多認為中國大陸目前正逐漸進入經濟結構轉型期，經濟下行壓力擴大。國際貨幣基金(IMF)的《China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown》研究報告指出，中國大陸推動經濟結構轉型，過程中將衝擊亞太地區國家與貿易夥伴，特別是臺灣，因全球價值鏈與中國大陸密切整合，經濟遭受影響程度最深。 截至2017年底本國銀行對大陸暴險已達新台幣1.73兆元，近年大陸房地產泡沫化、部分產業產能過剩、地方債務問題及影子銀行問題，企業償債能力及倒閉風險增加，可能衝擊本國銀行對大陸企業、大陸台商或與大陸景氣影響關聯性高的臺灣企業的授信品質。本研究同時採用量化及質化的分析方法，在量化分析方面，分別蒐集本國銀行大陸租賃子公司（含金控大陸租賃子公司）、大陸子行、大陸分行、國際金融業務分行及全體本國銀行不良授信資產與大陸經濟金融指標之次級資料，透過實證分析大陸經濟金融指標與本國銀行相關部門授信不良資產變動的相關性。在質化分析方面則整理目前已發生違約之重大大陸授信個案態樣及原因，以補足次級資料分析因觀察期間不夠充足，而可能無法完整展現大陸經濟金融指標與本國銀行相關部門授信不良資產變動相關性的問題。最後提出相關風險評析與因應對策，以供外界參考。 本研究主要的發現，在量化分析方面，有9個大陸經濟金融指標與本國銀行相關部門授信不良資產的變動較具相關性，此部分之發現建議可持續觀察，從較長期間繼續檢視兩者的相關性。質化分析面向發現已發生違約之重大大陸授信個案，均屬產能過剩產業而銀行未能提高警覺；部分授信個案公司治理不良，遭致授信戶蓄意詐欺；以及銀行過度依賴授信安排機構，未確實了解授信戶之財、業務狀況及未實地審查授信案營運情形，等徵授信程序欠缺審慎之缺失。

China has seen a decline in its economic growth rate since the first quarter of 2010. Both domestic and foreign research institutions and economic scholars generally believe that China is now entering an economic transformation period, with an increasing pressure of downward adjustment in economic growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) points out in its research report “China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown” that China is undergoing an economic restructuring period during which it will cause impact on its Asian neighbors and trade partners, especially on Taiwan which, due to its close integration with China in the global value chain, may suffer the hardest hit. As of the end of 2017, Taiwan banks’ risk exposure in China amounted to NT$1.73 trillion. Lately, China has been encountering several problems such as bursting of real estate market bubbles, over supply of certain industries, worsening debt problems of local governments, increasing troubles of shadow banking system, as well as enterprises’ weakening solvency and higher risk of bankruptcy. All of these will influence the credibility of a certain group of Taiwan Banks’ clients such as China enterprises, Taiwanese enterprises operating in China, and those whose business is sensitively influenced by China’s economic performance. This study takes both quantitative and qualitative approaches. In quantitative aspect, it collects information about the overall non-performing loans extended by Taiwan banks as well as their China-based subsidiaries, branches, leasing subsidiaries (including those of Taiwan financial holding companies), and offshore banking units (OBU), plus the secondary market information about China’s economic and financial market performance. Through empirical quantitative analysis, it examines the correlation between China’s economic and financial indicators and the non-performing loans extended by Taiwan banks as a whole. In qualitative aspect, it examines reasons behind the major default cases in China and makes classification of these cases, as supplementary analysis to make up the deficiency of quantitative analysis which, due to time limitation, may not be sufficient to fully explain how Taiwan banks’ non-performing loans change along with China’s economic and financial indicators. Finally, the study provides related risk analysis and recommends solutions as references of interested persons. Major findings: through quantitative analysis, the study finds there are nine major China economic and financial indicators most sensitively linked to the changes in non-performing loans extended by Taiwan banks. Yet, this finding needs follow-up observation to examine their correlation during a longer period of time. Through qualitative analysis, it finds almost all the major default cases happen among the over-supply industries and banks fail to take cautions against clients from these industries. Some cases result from intentional defaulting of the clients with poor corporate governance. Meanwhile, banks may over rely on the credit arrange institutions and fail to fully examine client’s assets and financial conditions, understand their actual operations, or take any other proper actions for due diligence during the credit-checking procedures. Key words: Economic and financial risks in China; China’s economic and financial indicators;Taiwan banks’ risk exposure in China; non-performing loans;default cases in China