過去十年日本不動產與匯率之間的聯動關係

Abstract

日本作為我國的近鄰，國土面積只有中國的1/25，但人口密度卻是中國的2.45倍。除此之外，日本還有一大堆世界聞名的頭銜：法治國家、廉潔政府、對174個國家免簽、平均每年一個的諾貝爾獎、擁有許多世界一流大學、世界第一的治安良好國家、環境優美且綠化高、世界第一的醫療健康、世界第一的長壽年齡等等。那麼這樣有著與中國類似的區域文化、有著極強的創新能力的國家，在過去的三十幾年中卻由於房地產泡沫破滅，導致日本經濟成長停滯，陷入了政治的動盪和經濟的蕭條之中，再加上1998年的亞洲金融風暴、2011年的311東北大地震、以及2008年全球範圍的金融海嘯爆發，這些天災人禍都給了日本經濟重擊，因此過去的二、三十年被稱為日本多個“失落的十年”。這段時間對於日本來說，雖然經歷了經濟增速的劇烈下跌，但卻實現了經濟結構的轉型和升級。2012年之後，隨著安倍的第二度上臺，出臺了一系列和經濟發展相關的重要政策，也就是現在常被提到的“安倍經濟學”，這對於日本此後的經濟發展具有了較為深遠的意義。 房地產市場和匯率市場，作為日本經濟的重要組成部分，近二十年也隨著宏觀經濟經歷了較大的波動。日本不動產市場在過去的二十幾年經歷了繁榮-崩潰-修復的過程。日圓匯率也呈現了先揚後抑的特徵。2013年以來，隨著日本宏觀經濟基本面的逐漸修復，個人消費信心的攀升以及家庭消費支出的增長，日圓和日本不動產也逐漸成為投資者們進行海外資產配置時青睞的資產。 那麼2017年以來，在全球經濟回暖的大趨勢之下，日圓以及日本不動產顯現了怎樣的投資機會呢，二者之間又有著怎樣的變動關係呢？本論文以此為研究的基點，旨在通過分析日本宏觀經濟背景，對日本房地產市場以及日圓匯率過去十年的走勢進行梳理，使投資者從宏觀的層面瞭解日本近10年的經濟發展，並在此基礎之上，更加明確未來對日圓和房地產市場投資的大方向。除此之外，在探尋日圓匯率和日本不動產市場之間的變動關係的同時，也對作者近年來沽空日圓的交易邏輯做了論述，以期給讀者啟發。

As a neighboring country of China, Japan is only 1/25 of China in terms of territory, but the population density is 2.45 times that of China. In addition, there are a lot of world famous Japanese Title such as rule of law, clean government, visa exemption to 174 countries, Nobel prize winner in annual basis, many of the world's top universities, the world's first good state of public security, high level of greening, the world's first medical health, one of the world's longevity age etc. Japan has the similar regional culture to China and a strong capacity of innovation. However, due to the collapse of the bubble economy, Japan fell into political turmoil and economic recession in the past thirty years. Coupled with the Asian financial turmoil in 1998, the 311 northeast earthquake in 2011, and the global financial crisis in 2008, Japanese economy was hit once again and the past ten years is also known as the 'lost ten years'. This period of time for Japan has experienced a sharp decline in economic growth, but it has realized the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure. After 2012, as Andouble came back to power, he issued a series of important policies related to economic development, which is often referred to as 'Andouble economics'. It has far-reaching significance for Japan's subsequent economic development. As an important part of the Japanese economy, the real estate market and the exchange rate market have also experienced great fluctuations in the past twenty years. The Japanese real estate market has experienced a process of prosperity - collapse - repair in the past twenty years. The Yen witnessed a up and down process. Since 2014, with the gradual recovery of Japan's macroeconomic, the increase of personal consumption confidence and the growth of household consumption expenditure, Japanese yen and Japanese real estate have gradually become assets favored by investors in overseas asset allocation. Since 2017, what is the investment opportunity of Japanese yen and Japanese real estate under the trend of global economic recovery and what is the relationship between the two? This is the basis of the research. through analysis of Japan's macroeconomic background, the trend of real estate market in Japan and the Japanese yen exchange rate over the past ten years, investors are able to understand Japanese economic development in nearly 10 years. On this basis, investors can figure out the future direction of the yen and the real estate market investment. In addition to analyze the relationship between yen and Japanese real estate market, the research also indicates my logic of short yen in recent years in order to inspire readers to.