我國央行之匯率政策－回顧與探討

Abstract

本文回顧並檢視在過往幾任央行總裁的任職期間內，央行對於外匯市場的管理方式是否確實與對外公佈的一致，以及匯率政策是否隨著不同的總裁在位而有顯著的改變。根據實證結果，我們發現在全樣本期間（1989年5月至2018年2月），台灣中央銀行執行「阻升不阻貶」的匯率政策；意即「平均而言，當新台幣升值時，央行在外匯市場買匯以阻止升值的行為統計上顯著；而在新台幣貶值時，央行進場執行反向干預的行為統計上不顯著」。若我們進一步將樣本期間依不同任央行總裁之任期做劃分，央行在1995年3月－1998年2月，及1998年3月－2018年2月（我們也將此長達20年之期間，以5年為一單位，進一步劃分成4個子樣本區間進行實證研究，緣由及結果詳見內文及附錄）這兩段期間，於外匯市場採取「阻升不阻貶」的策略；在1989年6月－1994年5月，和1994年6月－1995年3月這兩段期間，央行則未有顯著干預新台幣匯率的行為。

In this paper, we investigate whether Central Bank of Republic of China (henceforth: Taiwan Central Bank, TCB) executed exchange rate policies consistently as they announced to the public during the terms of last four governors of TCB. In addition, we examine whether the exchange rate policy varied with different TCB governors. We find that during the time from May, 1989 to February, 2018, TCB adopted the policy which we referred as “Block appreciation; nonintervention in depreciation”. That is to say, TCB interfered in the foreign exchange market when TWD appreciated and took actions to block the appreciation. On the other hand, when there was depreciation, TCB chose to let them slide. If we further partition the whole data set into subsamples and make them match the terms of different TCB governors, the empirical results show that during the period of March, 1995 to February, 1998 and March, 1998 to February, 2018, TCB implemented “Block appreciation; nonintervention in depreciation” strategy (For the latter 20-year lasting period, we also divide it into 4 subintervals and conduct empirical analyses separately. See chapter 5 and Appendix for the rationale and results, respectively.), yet throughout the spans of June, 1989 to May, 1994 and June, 1994 to March, 1995, the evidences show that TCB did not significantly intervene in the foreign exchange market.