請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件:
http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/19405
完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 杜震華(Jenn-Hwa Tu) | |
dc.contributor.author | Kai-Hsiang Chang | en |
dc.contributor.author | 張凱翔 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-08T01:57:28Z | - |
dc.date.copyright | 2016-07-25 | |
dc.date.issued | 2016 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2016-07-01 | |
dc.identifier.citation | 宋鎮照(1996),東協國家之政經發展,台北:五南圖書出版有限公司。
杜震華(1996),國際貿易投資與經濟發展,台北:華泰文化事業股份有限公司。 杜震華(2011),東亞自由貿易協定和兩岸經濟協議之異同,國家發展研究,11(1),頁1-42。 杜震華、盧信昌(2001),世界經濟概論(東南亞篇),台北:華泰文化事業股份有限公司。 李篤華、林幸君、許聖民、張靜貞、徐世勳(2014),臺灣與東協洽簽自由貿易協定之經濟影響評估--可計算一般均衡分析的應用,國家發展研究,13(2),頁39-45。 林建甫(2003),共整合與拱論,科學月刊,34,頁2-9。 邱魏頌正、黃秋閔(2004),外人直接投資、貿易與經濟成長-東亞與拉丁美洲實證之研究,環境與管理研究,5(1),頁1-32。 曹貽真、葉華容(2009),東亞國家力抗全球經濟衰退,國際經濟情勢雙週報,1680,頁5-15。 郭國誠、張琦雅、吳柏佑(2012),經濟成長、能源消耗與外人直接投資之因果關係—以東南亞五國為例,新竹:第十五屆決策分析研討會。 陳宏易、黃登興(2009),亞洲地區產業競爭優勢的更迭:雁行理論的再驗證,經濟論文叢刊,37(2),頁185-211。 陳仕偉、蘇家偉(2010),出口、進口與經濟成長的因果關係─臺灣、韓國及新加坡之實證研究,台灣銀行季刊,61(2),頁60-82。 陳仕偉、游曉莉(2011),儲蓄、投資與經濟成長的關係─OECD國家及臺灣的實證研究,台灣銀行季刊,62(4),頁189-233。 陳旭昇(2013),時間序列分析-總體經濟與財務金融之應用,台北:東華書局。 黃登興(2012),東南亞的外人直接投資與經濟發展,台灣東南亞學刊,9(1),頁25-54。 童振源(2009),東亞經濟整合體制對台灣吸引國際投資的影響,中國大陸研究,52(1),頁59-85。 楊奕農(2009),時間序列分析-經濟與財務上之應用,台北:雙葉書局。 劉郁初(2008),外來直接投資與經濟成長及貿易之因果關係分析─台灣實證研究,國立台灣大學國家發展研究所碩士論文。 蔡青龍、蔡攀龍(2012),印尼和泰國的經濟發展、外人直接投資與國際勞工移動:IMDP 分析架構之驗證,台灣東南亞學刊,9(1),頁79-112。 蔡攀龍(1990),外人直接投資的需求面決定因素及其對經濟成長之影響,經濟論文叢刊,18(2),頁183-211。 蔡攀龍、蔡青龍(2012),經濟發展、外人直接投資與國際勞工移動:「投資—移民—發展路徑」的分析架構,台灣東南亞學刊,9(1),頁3-24。 聯合報(2014, July),印尼世代交替,台印新契機? 顧長永、戴萬平、翁俊桔、蕭文軒(2015),亞太經貿市場:區域整合架構下的機遇與挑戰,新北:前程文化事業有限公司。 Kotler, Philip、Kartajaya, Hermawan和Hooi Den Huan著,任立中、曾光華譯(2016),新東協•新思路:啟動未來經濟引擎的關鍵,台北:美商麥格羅•希爾。 Nickels, William G.、McHugh , James M.和McHugh, Susan M.著,藍毓仁、陳智凱譯,余松培審(2002),企業管理,台北:美商麥格羅•希爾。 中華經濟研究院(2001),東協邁向自由貿易區之展望,東南亞經貿投資研究季刊,11,頁1-12。 中華經濟研究院(2007),亞洲金融風暴十週年回顧與前瞻,東南亞經貿投資研究季刊,36,頁1-20。 經濟部國際貿易局(2004),東南亞國家協會暨東協自由貿易區發展現況。 Ahmad, Jaleel and Somchai Harnhirun,1995,“Unit roots and cointegration in estimating causality between exports and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the ASEAN countries,”Economics Letters,Vol.49,pp.329-334. Akaika, H., 1973, “Maximum Likelihood Identification of Gaussian Auto-regressive Moovimg Average Models,”Biometrika, Vol. 60, pp. 255-266. Appleyard, Dennis and Alfred Field, 2014, International Economics, McGraw-Hill Irwin. Balassa, Bela, 1961, The Theory of Economic Integration, Irwing. Barro, Robert J., 1990, “Government spending in a simple model of endogenous growth,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98(5), pp. 103-125. Becketti, Sean, 2013, Introduction to Time Series Using Stata, Stata Press. Bhagwati, J.N., 1988, Protectionism. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts. ___________, 1967, “Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the European Common Market,” The Economic Journal, Vol.77, pp. 1-21. Brooks, Chris, 2014, Introductory Econometrics for Finance, 3rd edition, Cambridge University. Chia, Siow Yue, 1998, “The ASEAN free trade area,” The Pacific Review, Vol. 11(2), pp. 213-232. Clarke, J. A. and S. Mirza, 2006, “ A comparison of some common methods for detecting Granger no causality,”Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, Vol.76, pp.207-231. Coase, Ronald, 1937, “The Nature of the Firm,” Economica, Vol. 4 (16), pp. 386–405. Dickey, David A. and Wayne A. Fuller, 1979, “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root,” Journal of American Statistical Association, Vol.74, pp. 427-431. Dunning, John H., 1980, “Toward an Eclectic Theory of International Production: Some Empirical Tests,”Journal of International Business Studies, Vol. 11(1),pp. 9-31. Emery, R.F., 1967, “The relation of exports and economic growth,”. Kyklos, Vol. 20(2), pp. 470–486. Engle, Robert F. and C.W.J. Granger, 1987, “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing,” Journal of Econometrics,Vol. 50, pp. 251-276. Ghoshal, Ishita, 2015, “Trade-Growth Relationship in India in the Pre and Post Trade Agreements Regime,”Procedia Economics and Finance, Vol. 30, pp. 254-264. Goswami, Chandrama and Karuna Kanta Saikia, 2012, “FDI and its relation with exports in India, status and prospect in north east region,” Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vol. 37, pp. 123-132. Granger, C.W.J., 1969, “Investigating causal relations by econometric model and cross spectral method,”Econometrica, Vol. 37, pp. 424-438. Granger, C.W.J. and P. Newbold, 1974,”Spurious regressions in Econometrics,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 2 (2), pp. 111-120. Grossman, Gene M. and Elhanan Helpma, 1990, “Trade, Innovation, and Growth,” The American Economic Review, Vol. 80, pp. 86-91. Hamilton, James Douglas, 1994, Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press. Hapsari, Indira M. and Carlos Mangunsong, 2006, Determinants of AFTA Members’ Trade Flows and Potential for Trade Diversion,” Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade Working Paper Series, Vol. 21, pp.1-29. Hashim, Khairul and Mansur Masih, 2014, “What causes economic growth in Malaysia: exports or imports?,” MPRA Paper, No.62366. Hejazi, Walid and A.E Safarian, 2005,“NAFTA effects and the level of development,”Journal of Business Research, Vol. 58, pp. 1741-1749. Hsiao, Frank S.T. and Mei-Chu W. Hsiao, 2006, “FDI, Exports, and Growth in East and Southeast Asia—Evidence from Time-Series and Panel Data Causality Analyses,”Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 17, pp. 1082-1106. Huang, Deng-Shing. and Jenn-Hwa Tu, 1994, “On the Feasibility of Economic Cooperation in East Asia: Perspective from Trade Creation and Trade Diversion,” Journal of Economics Integration, Vol. 9, pp. 291-311. Hymer, Stephen, 1960, The International Operations of National Firms, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Isard, W., 1977, Location Theory, Agglomeration and the Pattern of World Trade in Bertil Ohlin(ed.), the International Allocation of Economic Activity, Holmes and Meier. Ismail, Abdul Ghafar and D. Agus Harjito, 2003, “EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: The Causality Test for ASEAN Countries,” Jurnal EKONOMI PEMBANGUNAN, Vol.8, pp.89-95. Ismail, Normaz Wana, Peter Smith and Maurice Kugler, 2009, “The Effect of ASEAN Economic Integration on Foreign Direct Investment,” Journal of Economic Integration, Vol. 24, pp. 385-407. Johansen, S., 1988, “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, pp. 231-254. __________ and Katarina Juselies, 1990, “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference Cointegration with Applications to the Demand for Money,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 52, pp. 169-210. Kojima, Kiyoshi ,1978, Direct Foreign Investment: A Japanese Model of Multinational Business Operations, London: Croom Helm Press. Lawrence, Robert Z. and David E. Weinstein, 1999, “Trade and Growth: Import-Led or Export-Led? Evidence From Japan and Korea,” NBER Working Papers, Vol.7264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Mazumdar, J., 2002, “Imported machinery and growth in LDCs,” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 65, pp.209–24. Moudatsou, Argiro and Dimitrios Kyrkilis, 2011, “ FDI and Economic Growth: Causality for the EU and ASEAN,”Journal of Economic Integration, Vol. 26, pp. 554-577. Ricardo, David, 1817, On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, London: John Murray. Romer , P. ,1990, “Endogenous Technological Change,”Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98(5), pp.71-102. Said, S. E.and David A. Dickey, 1984, “Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive-Moving Average Models of Unknown Order,”. Biometrika, Vol. 71 (3), pp. 599–607. Samuelson, P.A., 1939, “Interactions Between the Multiplier Analysis and the Principle of Acceleration,”Review of Economic Statistics , Vol. 21(2), pp. 75–78. Schwarz, G., 1978, “Estimating the Dimension of a Model,”The Annual of Statistical, Vol. 6, pp. 46-464. Smith, Adam ,1776, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, University of Chicago Press. Solow, Robert M., 1956, “A contribution to the theory of economic growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.70(1), pp. 65–94. Toda, H.Y. and Peter C.B. Phillips, 1994, “Vector autoregressions and causality, ” Econometric Reviews, Vol. 13, pp. 259-285. Vernon, Raymond, 1966, “International Investment and International Trade in Product Cycle,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 80(2), pp. 190-207. Viner, Jacob, 1950, The Customs Union Issue, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. World Bank, 1993, The East Asian Miracle: economic growth and public policy : Main report, Oxford University Press. __________, 2009, “The ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: Impact on Trade Flows and External Trade Barriers,” Policy Research Working Paper, Vol. 4960. Central Intelligence Agency, 2016, The World Factbook. The World Bank, 2009, World Development Reports. | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/19405 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 東協自由貿易區 (ASEAN FTA) 自從一九九三年成立以來,國際貿易是否能夠帶動經濟成長一直是學者關注的焦點。此外,東協五國大多為開發中國家,初期往往缺乏先進生產設備與資金,因此外資向來被視為經濟命脈。另一方面,東協五國經濟成長的原因何在?經濟成長主要為受到東協自由貿易區的影響或者是其他因素?此一問題亦備受關注。因此,本論文研究旨在探討經濟成長、貿易及外人直接投資三者間之關係。
過去研究利用VAR模型對經濟成長議題所作之研究,在經濟成長之衡量上採用總量或是成長率方式,研究結果顯示東協五國在經濟成長、貿易與外資三者間無統計上顯著之因果存在,而本研究則以世界銀行 (World Bank)之年序列資料 (World Development Indicators),將各變數以成長率的衡量方式,重新探討變數間之因果關係。 因東協自由貿易區的關係,將時間區分為1981~1992及1993~2014前後兩段時期,觀察三者在東協五國之表現,結果顯示,前期經濟成長與貿易有互為因果之關係存在,表示在1993年之前外資對經濟成長產生了直接挹注的效果,而同時經濟成長帶動出口;後期則以新加坡較具代表性,主要為經濟成長與貿易有因果關係之作用,而同時外資帶動經濟成長,表示在1993年之後經濟成長、貿易及外資則受到 (東協) 自由貿易區影響較大。本論文研究以不同於傳統計量經濟學之角度衡量其迴歸係數之解釋,旨在提供後續之研究者不同之思維方向。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | Since ASEAN FTA is established in 1993, whether international trade leds economic growth has been in debate. As a developing country, ASEAN5 often lack the advanced production equipment and funds in the beginning. FDI is always regarded as ASEAN5’s economic lifeline. Besides, what is the reason that causes ASEAN5 economic growth? Does economic growth mainly for ASEAN FTA or other things? This research intends to discuss the relationship between economic growth, trade and FDI.
In the past, scholars used quantity or growth rate to measure economic growth in VAR model. The findings demonstrated there was no significant statistic relationship between economic growth, trade and FDI. This research chooses “World Development Indicators” which is provided by World Bank in 2016. This research also uses growth rate to measure its relationship. Because of ASEAN FTA, the time line is divided into the two periods from 1981 to 1992 and from 1993 to 2014. The results show that economic growth and export stimulate each other before 1993. This indicates that FDI has the injection effect and at the same time leds export before 1993. After establishing ASEAN FTA, the results show that economic growth and trade stimulate each other and at same time FDI leds economic growth in Singapore. This indicates that economic growth, trade and FDI are mainly affected by free trade area after 1993. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-08T01:57:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-105-R03341040-1.pdf: 5577149 bytes, checksum: 03fd83a801256d35fb5215050bb95b7f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1 第二節 研究目的 3 第三節 研究架構與實證流程 6 第二章 文獻回顧 9 第一節 東協自由貿易區 9 第二節 經濟成長與貿易 11 第三節 經濟成長與外人直接投資 15 第四節 因果分析小結 20 第五節 相關實證文獻 21 第三章 東協五國經濟成長之歷史趨勢 26 第一節 東協五國經濟成長概況 26 第二節 經濟成長率 30 第四章 研究方法 35 第一節 單根檢定 35 第二節 共整合檢定 37 第三節 因果關係檢定 40 第五章 實證分析 43 第一節 資料來源與研究限制 43 第二節 實證結果與分析 45 第一部分 自由貿易區未成立前,三者間之因果關係………………45 第二部分 自由貿易區未成立前,三者間之因果關係………………62 第三節 小結 79 第六章 結論與建議 90 第一節 結論 90 第二節 建議與檢討 91 參考文獻 94 附錄 100 | |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
dc.title | 經濟成長與貿易及外人直接投資之因果關係分析-東協五國實證研究 | zh_TW |
dc.title | The Relationship Between Economic Growth, Trade and FDI–Evidence from ASEAN 5 | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 104-2 | |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 林建甫(Chien-Fu Jeff Lin),盧信昌(Hsin-Chang Lu) | |
dc.subject.keyword | 東協五國,經濟成長,國際貿易,外人直接投資, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | ASEAN5,Economic Growth,International Trade,Foreign Direct Investment, | en |
dc.relation.page | 109 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU201600625 | |
dc.rights.note | 未授權 | |
dc.date.accepted | 2016-07-01 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 社會科學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 國家發展研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 國家發展研究所 |
文件中的檔案:
檔案 | 大小 | 格式 | |
---|---|---|---|
ntu-105-1.pdf 目前未授權公開取用 | 5.45 MB | Adobe PDF |
系統中的文件,除了特別指名其著作權條款之外,均受到著作權保護,並且保留所有的權利。