季節氣候變異對臺北市進口蔬菜批發價格變化的影響-以蘿蔔、萵苣、青花菜、西芹為例

Abstract

自古以來，農民們依循節氣變化，栽種適時的作物，才能夠有豐碩的收穫。臺灣地區的蔬菜由於氣候因素，常常發生價格變動的現象，進口蔬菜除了有與臺灣生產季節相反的替代作用也能提供消費者更多樣化的選擇。但因其最終銷售端也是在臺灣市場除了要與本地蔬菜價格和產量抗衝外同樣也受到天然氣候的影響。 本研究樣本來源為交通部中央氣象局和行政農委會農糧署之農產品交易行情站，利用時間序列資料分析探討氣象因素和不同季節對進口蔬菜交易價與交易量之影響效果。希透過研究結果提供相關農業機構團體、貿易商作計劃性進口採購及銷售之參考。 實證結果顯示溫度、季節對成交價有正向顯著影響，雨量、颱風、寒害對成交價有不同程度的影響效果。

From ancient times, farmers have followed the solar terms to change their planting of crops timely, so they can be able to have a good harvest. However, vegetables in Taiwan market prices often fluctuate due to climatic factors. Compared with local vegetables, imported vegetables as a substitute for the climatic factors can provide consumers a variety of options. The final end sales in the Taiwan market of imported vegetables, which also affected by climate, still need to fight against to the local vegetables' prices. This research sample is from the Central Weather Bureau and Agriculture and Food Agency, Council of Agriculture, Executive Yuan of Agriculture Food Agricultural Trading Market web, aiming to use data of time series, discussing about the impacts on imported vegetables price and trading volume by climatic and seasonal factors. Through the research, we hope that result can bring valuable information to any Agricultural organizations and trading companies for their reference of making purchases and sales strategy. In short, according to the research, the different temperatures & seasons would have certain impacts for the wholesale price. In addition, the rainfall, typhoon, chilling injury would have caused obvious impacts on the wholesale price.