OECD國家公共支出對人類發展指數之影響

Abstract

全球金融危機與歐洲債務危機造成全球政治經濟環境極大的衝擊。面對經濟危機衝擊的影響，許多已開發國家選擇以擴大公共支出因應。然而，公共支出的擴張卻造成政府財政赤字以及公共債務的增加，導致國家財政問題的浮現。 為了解決財政問題，許多西方國家選擇以撙節措施因應，透過刪減公共支出來減輕財政負擔。然而，刪減公共支出對於國民生活福祉所造成的影響卻出現正反不同的看法。因此，本研究欲進一步探討公共支出對於已開發國家之國民生活福祉的影響。 本研究之研究對象為經濟合作暨發展組織(Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD)國家共34國。本研究選擇聯合國開發計畫署(United Nations Development Programme, UNDP)所編纂的人類發展指數(Human Development Index, HDI)作為依變項，用以衡量國民之生活福祉。人類發展指數為一個單一綜合性指數，衡量一國在健康、教育、以及經濟層面的表現。本研究分析的時間範圍為2005年至2012年。本研究之自變項為OECD國家之公共支出。為反映公共支出的遞延影響效果，本研究以前一期的概念，選擇2004年至2011年作為分析的時間範圍。 透過迴歸模型之分析，本研究得到以下之結果。首先，政府的醫療支出與社會安全支出對於國民的「平均零歲餘命」具有顯著正向的影響。再者，政府的教育支出、社會安全支出、以及醫療支出皆對於一國之「預期受教育年數」具有顯著正向的影響。然而，即便政府的社會安全支出與醫療支出對於一國之「平均受教育年數」具有顯著正向的影響，政府教育支出的影響則為不顯著。另外，就公共支出對於「購買力平價計算之實質人均GNI」的影響而言，本研究得到的結果與凱因斯理論之論述相符：在經濟景氣良好的時候，公共支出具有排擠效果，對於整體經濟的表現具有負向的影響；然而，當經濟景氣出現衰退時，公共支出具有正向的刺激效果。最後，就公共支出對於人類發展指數的影響而言，本研究之迴歸模型結果顯示公共支出具有顯著正向的影響。 本研究認為，以上之結果能夠說明公共支出扮演著提升OECD國家國民生活福祉的角色。採取撙節措施雖然有助於減緩當前政府的財政問題，但是對於國民生活福祉的長遠影響是不可忽略的面向。

The impact of the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis was huge and worldwide. For many developed countries, increasing public spending to boost the economy was their approach to deal with the economic crises. However, the move soon led to a bigger issue as fiscal deficit and national debt surged. To address the problem, austerity measures and government spending cuts were carried out. However, the impact of government spending cuts on people’s well-being is a divided debate. Therefore, in this study, we shall look into the impact of public spending in the developed countries and see how it affects people’s lives. In our study, we shall examine the impact of public spending on human development in all 34 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries. The analysis of this study covers an eight-year period, from 2005 to 2012, with the Human Development Index (HDI) and all four of its indicators being the dependent variables, and public spending in the OECD countries the independent variables. The HDI is a composite index developed by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to evaluate the well-being of citizens in each United Nations (UN) country by health, education, and the standard of living.

Our findings are as follows. First, our results show that health and social security spending both contribute to the increase in “life expectancy at birth”. Second, we found that the impact of education, social security, and health spending on “expected years of schooling” is significant and positive. While the impact of health and social security spending on “mean years of schooling” is significant and positive, we found the impact of public spending on education to be statistically insignificant. In addition, according to our results, despite that public spending can cause a crowding-out effect when the economy is booming, it plays a stimulus role during economic downturns. Finally, we found the impact of public spending on the HDI to be significant and positive, indicating that public spending is crucial for sustaining human development in the OECD countries. Although austerity measures may seem to be a solution to alleviate the nations’ financial problems, its impact on people’s lives in the long run cannot be overlooked.