併購價格決定之個案研究

Abstract

併購是企業為求最短時間內擴大經濟規模，以享受規模經濟、租稅優惠、改善製程與資源的共用、降低財務成本等優勢，以有利提高營運效率、降低成本或推升股價的策略方法。併購是時代的趨勢，一樁接著一樁的併購案成形，顯示併購正成為企業成長的主要模式。從收購公司的立場而言，對目標公司常用之評價方法有折現現金流量法、市場倍數法。折現現金流量法需要併購後目標公司之預估現金流量表與折現率。市場倍數法是基於市場決定合理的倍數，再由評價者個人主觀的意思來衡量同業間市場倍數判斷予以調整。 經由各種評價方法評價後，目標公司最後敲定的價值取決於併購雙方之議價能力以及當時之各種市場因素。本研究運用賽局理論（Game Theory）的分析方法，以個案探討在議價雙方訊息不對稱下，買賣雙方的價格制訂過程與議價的決定。本研究也論述在探討併購議價的過程中，也會因雙方折現因子及耐心程度的不同而影響先後出價的均衡價格。對目標公司的公司治理、投資策略管理、業務行銷、生產製造、財務會計與相關法律的相關風險會影響併購議價價格的決定及併購是否成功，必需對風險加以控制與管理，以減少可能產生之風險及損失，確保併購案成功並達成收購綜效，最終創造股東價值。

M&A is one of the strategies for a company to expand its economic scale in the shortest time to enjoy economies of scale, tax incentives, improving processes, shared resources, reducing financial costs and other advantages to effectively improve operational efficiency, reduce costs or push up stock price. M&A is the trend of the era. Cases were formed one after the other. It tells us that M&A officially becomes the main growth engine. From acquirer standpoint, the commonly used valuation methods are discounted cash flow (DCF) method and market multiples method. Discounted cash flow method requires the estimated cash flow statement and the discount rate of the target company . Market multiples method is to determine a market reasonable multiplier. Then the evaluator’s takes his/her subjective judgment to modify this multiplier based on industry market multiples. After evaluated by various valuation methods, the value of the target company will be decided based on bargaining power of the parties and all kinds of market factors. In this study, we use game theory analytical methods to explore price negotiation and decision making processes under information asymmetry situation. The Nash price will be greatly influenced by discount factor and the sufferance after rounds of price offering. M&A valuation & its success are highly related to corporate governance, investment strategy, sales & marketing, manufacturing, finance/accounting and associated risk of the target company. It is necessary to manage and control risk while reducing the possible risk and loss to ensure the success of M&A, to achieve the synergy and ultimately to create shareholder value.